My first thought was: “All predictions are probabilistic, ridiculing people who guessed wrong is only going to discourage making clear predictions.”
But then I looked at those predictions, and many of them were expressing high confidence and ridiculing those who disagreed, so I guess this is deserved. Otherwise we will have asymmetric incentives where making certain type of predictions will be socially punished, but making predictions in the opposite directions will be safe. (It also reminds me of some of my contacts on facebook, who are often very confident about the predictions, and when they turn out to be wrong, they just stop commenting on that topic for a while, and then continue predicting something else with the same confidence.)
Yeah I saw a few in there that were just like, “I can’t see an argument for invading. It just doesn’t make sense to me”, and I have a lot of sympathy for them, but the people who mocked the idea?
There are a lot of journalists who… maybe shouldn’t get to work again?
My first thought was: “All predictions are probabilistic, ridiculing people who guessed wrong is only going to discourage making clear predictions.”
But then I looked at those predictions, and many of them were expressing high confidence and ridiculing those who disagreed, so I guess this is deserved. Otherwise we will have asymmetric incentives where making certain type of predictions will be socially punished, but making predictions in the opposite directions will be safe. (It also reminds me of some of my contacts on facebook, who are often very confident about the predictions, and when they turn out to be wrong, they just stop commenting on that topic for a while, and then continue predicting something else with the same confidence.)
Yeah I saw a few in there that were just like, “I can’t see an argument for invading. It just doesn’t make sense to me”, and I have a lot of sympathy for them, but the people who mocked the idea?
There are a lot of journalists who… maybe shouldn’t get to work again?