but your estimate on that should be roughly the same today as it was yesterday
I just don’t know about any of this stuff, so the update was “Oh Putin has boots on the ground to take territory, maybe he has ambitious goals”. The loose analogy would be to the Anschluss of Austria (forbidden by Versailles, but IIUC Austria wasn’t allied with Britain or France), with the Baltic states being analogous to Czechoslovakia (which was allies with France, but which was more or less abandoned to Hitler). (This is maybe/probably a terrible analogy, e.g. because NATO will be more solid, but I’m just ignorant.) Do you think Putin has very ambitious goals?
...with the Baltic states being analogous to Czechoslovakia (which was allies with France, but which was more or less abandoned to Hitler)
I think a key difference is the presence of NATO troops in the Baltic states (NATO Enhanced Forward Presence, Baltic Air Policing). Militarily, those are only a tripwire, but killing US pilots in an attack on the Baltic states seems to me a very dangerous move.
If France and England had had garrisons in Czechoslovakia, then 1938 could have played out quite differently.
Thanks.
I just don’t know about any of this stuff, so the update was “Oh Putin has boots on the ground to take territory, maybe he has ambitious goals”. The loose analogy would be to the Anschluss of Austria (forbidden by Versailles, but IIUC Austria wasn’t allied with Britain or France), with the Baltic states being analogous to Czechoslovakia (which was allies with France, but which was more or less abandoned to Hitler). (This is maybe/probably a terrible analogy, e.g. because NATO will be more solid, but I’m just ignorant.) Do you think Putin has very ambitious goals?
I think a key difference is the presence of NATO troops in the Baltic states (NATO Enhanced Forward Presence, Baltic Air Policing). Militarily, those are only a tripwire, but killing US pilots in an attack on the Baltic states seems to me a very dangerous move.
If France and England had had garrisons in Czechoslovakia, then 1938 could have played out quite differently.
Good point.