5% would be by the end of all this. Most of that probability comes from things developing in an unfortunate direction as I said, which would mean it goes against the current indications we have of neither the US nor NATO intervening militarily. This could be either them changing their minds, perhaps due to unexpectedly brutal Russian conduct during the war leading to a decision to impose a no-fly zone or something like that, or a cycle of retaliatory escalation due to unintended spillover of the war like I illustrated. Neither is too likely imo, and both will have advance warning if you’re paying any attention luckily. The risk of a sudden nuclear exchange which doesn’t even give enough warning for Americans to leave their cities is definitely lower, maybe 2% at most. But it’s definitely present as well, due to the misjudgment risks etc. as I mentioned.
I will add that we do not know what the probability of nuclear escalation was during the Cold War. Perhaps there was a 50 or 90 percent risk of war. Survivorship bias.
That doesn’t sound right. A nuclear war would not have ended humanity. The fact that we’re looking back upon a history where no nuclear war has occurred is evidence against a high risk of war being present during the Cold War. The fact that we’re looking back upon multiple “close calls” in the past is an indication that those calls weren’t that close after all.
Yes, a nuclear war would not destroy humanity completely. This is not relevant to this issue. From the fact that there was no nuclear war, we cannot deduce in any way what its probability was. The probability can be deduced only from a thorough assessment of the incidents themselves (the Caribbean crisis and 1983 and other examples) and the possibilities of other incidents. I hope the translator translated it correctly...
Good point. Unless of course one is more likely to be born into universes with high human populations than universes with low human populations, because there are more ‘brains available to be born into’. Hard to say.
I don’t think an all-out nuclear war would even substantially (i.e. by orders of magnitude) reduce world population, though this claim is a bit more controversial. That may sound morbid but it’s what is relevant for anthropics.
Good point. In my understanding it could go either way, but I’m open to the idea that the worst disasters are less than 50% likely, given a nuclear war.
5% would be by the end of all this. Most of that probability comes from things developing in an unfortunate direction as I said, which would mean it goes against the current indications we have of neither the US nor NATO intervening militarily. This could be either them changing their minds, perhaps due to unexpectedly brutal Russian conduct during the war leading to a decision to impose a no-fly zone or something like that, or a cycle of retaliatory escalation due to unintended spillover of the war like I illustrated. Neither is too likely imo, and both will have advance warning if you’re paying any attention luckily. The risk of a sudden nuclear exchange which doesn’t even give enough warning for Americans to leave their cities is definitely lower, maybe 2% at most. But it’s definitely present as well, due to the misjudgment risks etc. as I mentioned.
Also, see the comments I just wrote on EA Forum.
I will add that we do not know what the probability of nuclear escalation was during the Cold War. Perhaps there was a 50 or 90 percent risk of war. Survivorship bias.
That doesn’t sound right. A nuclear war would not have ended humanity. The fact that we’re looking back upon a history where no nuclear war has occurred is evidence against a high risk of war being present during the Cold War. The fact that we’re looking back upon multiple “close calls” in the past is an indication that those calls weren’t that close after all.
Yes, a nuclear war would not destroy humanity completely. This is not relevant to this issue. From the fact that there was no nuclear war, we cannot deduce in any way what its probability was. The probability can be deduced only from a thorough assessment of the incidents themselves (the Caribbean crisis and 1983 and other examples) and the possibilities of other incidents.
I hope the translator translated it correctly...
Good point. Unless of course one is more likely to be born into universes with high human populations than universes with low human populations, because there are more ‘brains available to be born into’. Hard to say.
I don’t think an all-out nuclear war would even substantially (i.e. by orders of magnitude) reduce world population, though this claim is a bit more controversial. That may sound morbid but it’s what is relevant for anthropics.
Good point. In my understanding it could go either way, but I’m open to the idea that the worst disasters are less than 50% likely, given a nuclear war.