Oh and also, there’s potential for this to lead to a coup/domestic upheaval/regime change in Russia which would be an exceptionally volatile situation, kind of like having 6000 loose nukes until whoever takes power consolidates control including over the strategic forces again. So factoring that in, it should perhaps be over 5%. But again there should be advance warning for those developments inside Russia.
I don’t know much about coups, but if there was any advance warnings for everyone to see, then the regime would know what’s coming too and would presumably prevent it?
Oh and also, there’s potential for this to lead to a coup/domestic upheaval/regime change in Russia which would be an exceptionally volatile situation, kind of like having 6000 loose nukes until whoever takes power consolidates control including over the strategic forces again. So factoring that in, it should perhaps be over 5%. But again there should be advance warning for those developments inside Russia.
I don’t know much about coups, but if there was any advance warnings for everyone to see, then the regime would know what’s coming too and would presumably prevent it?