[…] once the hostilities have ended I would guess the sanctions will be lifted over time […]
I think his point is that Europe will wean themselves off of Russian energy ASAP, and that energy is Russia’s main export. Removing sanctions won’t matter if no one is buying what Russia is selling.
Hence his prediction of radical dependence on China. He’s suggesting China will become Russia’s only relevant customer.
Yeah, I like his prediction that if Europe stops buying Russian energy it could force Russia into greater economic dependence on China. I’m wondering how likely Europe is to actually move away from Russian energy though. It sounds like the obvious thing to do, but I don’t know from a practical standpoint how easy it would be without causing a lot of disruption in the short to medium term. I doubt they can just flip a switch and convert to new energy sources overnight, especially in Eastern Europe which is heavily reliant on Russian supply.
I think the longer the war lasts, the more likely it is for Europe to move away from Russian energy. But if the war ends relatively quickly, the motivation to do so might fade away due to economic considerations as well as general inertia/political difficulty when trying to make substantial changes.
I think his point is that Europe will wean themselves off of Russian energy ASAP, and that energy is Russia’s main export. Removing sanctions won’t matter if no one is buying what Russia is selling.
Hence his prediction of radical dependence on China. He’s suggesting China will become Russia’s only relevant customer.
Yeah, I like his prediction that if Europe stops buying Russian energy it could force Russia into greater economic dependence on China. I’m wondering how likely Europe is to actually move away from Russian energy though. It sounds like the obvious thing to do, but I don’t know from a practical standpoint how easy it would be without causing a lot of disruption in the short to medium term. I doubt they can just flip a switch and convert to new energy sources overnight, especially in Eastern Europe which is heavily reliant on Russian supply.
I think the longer the war lasts, the more likely it is for Europe to move away from Russian energy. But if the war ends relatively quickly, the motivation to do so might fade away due to economic considerations as well as general inertia/political difficulty when trying to make substantial changes.