Off the top of my head, maybe it’s because Metaculus’ presents medians, and the median user neither investigates the issue much, nor trusts those who do (Matt Y, Scott A) and just roughly follows base rates. I also feel there was some wishful thinking, and that to some extent, the fullness of the invasion was at least somewhat intrinsically surprising.
Another possibility is that most people were reluctant to read, summarise, or internalise Putin’s writing on Ukraine due to finding it repugnant, because they aren’t decouplers.
Off the top of my head, maybe it’s because Metaculus’ presents medians, and the median user neither investigates the issue much, nor trusts those who do (Matt Y, Scott A) and just roughly follows base rates. I also feel there was some wishful thinking, and that to some extent, the fullness of the invasion was at least somewhat intrinsically surprising.
Another possibility is that most people were reluctant to read, summarise, or internalise Putin’s writing on Ukraine due to finding it repugnant, because they aren’t decouplers.