The ‘how to think of planning fallacy’ I grokked was ‘people while planning don’t simulate the scenario in enough detail and don’t see potential difficulties,’* so this is new to me. Or rather, what you say is in some sense part of the way I thought, except I didn’t simulate it in enough detail to realise that I should understand it in a probabilistic sense as well, so it’s new to me when it shouldn’t be.
*In fact, right now I’m procrastinating goign and telling my prof that an expansion I told him I’d do is infinite.
The ‘how to think of planning fallacy’ I grokked was ‘people while planning don’t simulate the scenario in enough detail and don’t see potential difficulties,’* so this is new to me. Or rather, what you say is in some sense part of the way I thought, except I didn’t simulate it in enough detail to realise that I should understand it in a probabilistic sense as well, so it’s new to me when it shouldn’t be.
*In fact, right now I’m procrastinating goign and telling my prof that an expansion I told him I’d do is infinite.