I think in an ideal world we’d have prediction markets structured around several different levels of investment risk, so that people with different levels of investment risk tolerance can make bets (and we might also observe fascinating differences if the odds diverge, eg if AGI probabilities are massively different between S&P 500 bets and T-bills bets, for example).
I believe the correct way to do this, at least in theory, is to simply have bets denominated in the risk-free rate—and if anyone wants more risk, they can use leverage to simultaneously invest in equities and prediction markets.
Right now I don’t know if it’s possible to use margin loans to invest in prediction markets.
I think in an ideal world we’d have prediction markets structured around several different levels of investment risk, so that people with different levels of investment risk tolerance can make bets (and we might also observe fascinating differences if the odds diverge, eg if AGI probabilities are massively different between S&P 500 bets and T-bills bets, for example).
I believe the correct way to do this, at least in theory, is to simply have bets denominated in the risk-free rate—and if anyone wants more risk, they can use leverage to simultaneously invest in equities and prediction markets.
Right now I don’t know if it’s possible to use margin loans to invest in prediction markets.