The second insight can be formulated as «the dull explanations are more likely to be correct because they tend to have high prior probability.»
That needs a LOT of caveats.
A counter-quote: “For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.”—H. L. Mencken
That needs a LOT of caveats.
A counter-quote: “For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.”—H. L. Mencken