To answer your questions: No, I don’t think you can fairly conclude that I’m subject to Pascal’s Mugging, and I draw the line based on what calculations I can do and what calculations I can’t do.
That is, my inability to come up with reliable estimates of the probability that Pascal’s Mugger really can (and will) kill 3^^^3 people is not a good reason for me to disregard my ability to come up with reliable estimates of the probability that dropping poison in a well will kill people; I can reasonably refuse to do the latter (regardless of what I feel) on the grounds that I don’t choose to kill people, regardless of what I say or don’t say about Pascal’s Mugging.
And if there’s a connection between any of this and the initial question I asked, I don’t see it.
To answer your questions: No, I don’t think you can fairly conclude that I’m subject to Pascal’s Mugging, and I draw the line based on what calculations I can do and what calculations I can’t do.
That is, my inability to come up with reliable estimates of the probability that Pascal’s Mugger really can (and will) kill 3^^^3 people is not a good reason for me to disregard my ability to come up with reliable estimates of the probability that dropping poison in a well will kill people; I can reasonably refuse to do the latter (regardless of what I feel) on the grounds that I don’t choose to kill people, regardless of what I say or don’t say about Pascal’s Mugging.
And if there’s a connection between any of this and the initial question I asked, I don’t see it.