I agree that certain demos might change the mind of certain people. (And if so, they’re worthwhile.) But I also think other people would be immune. For example, suppose someone has the (mistaken) idea: “Nobody would be so stupid as to actually press go on an AI that would then go on to kill lots of people! Or even if theoretically somebody might be stupid enough to do that, management / government / etc. would never let that happen.” Then that mistaken idea would not be disproven by any demo, except a “demo” that involved lots of actual real-life people getting killed. Right?
Sure. At this point I agree that some people will be so foolish and stubborn that no demo will concern them. Indeed, some people fail to update even on actual events.
So now we are, as Zvi likes to say, ‘talking price’. What proportion of key government decision-makers would be influenced by how persuasive (and costly) of demos.
We both agree that the correct amount of effort to put towards demos is somewhere between nearly all of our AI safety effort-resources, and nearly none. I think it’s a good point that we should try to estimate how effective a demo is likely to be on some particular individual or group, and aim to neither over nor under invest in it.
I agree that certain demos might change the mind of certain people. (And if so, they’re worthwhile.) But I also think other people would be immune. For example, suppose someone has the (mistaken) idea: “Nobody would be so stupid as to actually press go on an AI that would then go on to kill lots of people! Or even if theoretically somebody might be stupid enough to do that, management / government / etc. would never let that happen.” Then that mistaken idea would not be disproven by any demo, except a “demo” that involved lots of actual real-life people getting killed. Right?
Sure. At this point I agree that some people will be so foolish and stubborn that no demo will concern them. Indeed, some people fail to update even on actual events.
So now we are, as Zvi likes to say, ‘talking price’. What proportion of key government decision-makers would be influenced by how persuasive (and costly) of demos.
We both agree that the correct amount of effort to put towards demos is somewhere between nearly all of our AI safety effort-resources, and nearly none. I think it’s a good point that we should try to estimate how effective a demo is likely to be on some particular individual or group, and aim to neither over nor under invest in it.