I’m pretty sure that the right sort of demo could convince even a quite skeptical viewer.
Imagine going back in time and explaining chemistry to someone, then showing them blueprints for a rifle.
Imagine this person scoffs at the idea of a gun. You pull out a handgun and show it to them, and they laugh at the idea that this small blunt piece of metal could really hurt them from a distance. They understand the chemistry and the design that you showed them, but it just doesn’t click for them on an intuitive level.
Demo time.
You take them out to an open field and hand them an apple. Hold this balanced on your outstretched hand, you say.
You walk a ways away, and shoot the apple out of their hand. Suddenly the reality sinks in.
So, I think maybe the demos that are failing to convince people are weak demos. I bet the Trinity test could’ve convinced some nuclear weapon skeptics.
I agree that certain demos might change the mind of certain people. (And if so, they’re worthwhile.) But I also think other people would be immune. For example, suppose someone has the (mistaken) idea: “Nobody would be so stupid as to actually press go on an AI that would then go on to kill lots of people! Or even if theoretically somebody might be stupid enough to do that, management / government / etc. would never let that happen.” Then that mistaken idea would not be disproven by any demo, except a “demo” that involved lots of actual real-life people getting killed. Right?
Sure. At this point I agree that some people will be so foolish and stubborn that no demo will concern them. Indeed, some people fail to update even on actual events.
So now we are, as Zvi likes to say, ‘talking price’. What proportion of key government decision-makers would be influenced by how persuasive (and costly) of demos.
We both agree that the correct amount of effort to put towards demos is somewhere between nearly all of our AI safety effort-resources, and nearly none. I think it’s a good point that we should try to estimate how effective a demo is likely to be on some particular individual or group, and aim to neither over nor under invest in it.
I’m pretty sure that the right sort of demo could convince even a quite skeptical viewer.
Imagine going back in time and explaining chemistry to someone, then showing them blueprints for a rifle.
Imagine this person scoffs at the idea of a gun. You pull out a handgun and show it to them, and they laugh at the idea that this small blunt piece of metal could really hurt them from a distance. They understand the chemistry and the design that you showed them, but it just doesn’t click for them on an intuitive level.
Demo time. You take them out to an open field and hand them an apple. Hold this balanced on your outstretched hand, you say. You walk a ways away, and shoot the apple out of their hand. Suddenly the reality sinks in.
So, I think maybe the demos that are failing to convince people are weak demos. I bet the Trinity test could’ve convinced some nuclear weapon skeptics.
I agree that certain demos might change the mind of certain people. (And if so, they’re worthwhile.) But I also think other people would be immune. For example, suppose someone has the (mistaken) idea: “Nobody would be so stupid as to actually press go on an AI that would then go on to kill lots of people! Or even if theoretically somebody might be stupid enough to do that, management / government / etc. would never let that happen.” Then that mistaken idea would not be disproven by any demo, except a “demo” that involved lots of actual real-life people getting killed. Right?
Sure. At this point I agree that some people will be so foolish and stubborn that no demo will concern them. Indeed, some people fail to update even on actual events.
So now we are, as Zvi likes to say, ‘talking price’. What proportion of key government decision-makers would be influenced by how persuasive (and costly) of demos.
We both agree that the correct amount of effort to put towards demos is somewhere between nearly all of our AI safety effort-resources, and nearly none. I think it’s a good point that we should try to estimate how effective a demo is likely to be on some particular individual or group, and aim to neither over nor under invest in it.