I actually thought of this as an example slightly before sending in the post, and wondered if I should thereby discard the question as resolved. If the workers are really so much dead weight though, I have a hard time seeing the action as ruthless, and if the tradeoff is close to borderline, I’m not sure that as a matter of policy, firing the workers is really beneficial from a societal standpoint.
In a society with sufficiently advanced technology, most or all workers can be replaced by machines, for an increase in wealth production. But if this results in most of the population having no wealth because they’re not doing any useful work, then society as a whole really isn’t better off for it. So I’m inclined to suspect that for a given technology level, the societal optimum is likely to have people compensated on average at some point beyond their own economic productivity.
On the whole, I accept this an an example, but with reservations.
You’re basically making the Luddite argument here—technology will put humans out of work. Empirically, it’s not true. We’ve shifted people away from all the boring stuff machines are good at(plowing fields, welding car frames, etc.), and into the sorts of jobs that actually require a human brain(service industries, largely). But 200 years of industrialization, and we’re still at full employment, with no sign of that changing soon.
And even if we take your thought experiment at face value, and assume that all production is outsourced to machines, then you basically suggest that nobody has to work in order to have stuff. Why would people be poor in that situation? The biggest threat would be hedonistic ennui, the self-destructive spiral of boredom and addiction that seems to afflict the vast majority of any group that doesn’t have to work(be it nobility or people on welfare). But you’d never have to worry about a roof over your head.
We’ve shifted people away from all the boring stuff machines are good at (plowing fields [...] and we’re still at full employment, with no sign of that changing soon.
The price many states pay to achieve this result is giving tons of money in form of various subventions to people who work in agriculture. So in my opinion, the technology is already able to put many humans out of agriculture… but we are paying them to stay there regardless.
Because if we removed all those subventions, then… well, in theory, in a long term the people would move from agriculture to something else. But in practice, in short term we would most likely have social unrests leading either to a revolution, or to some political party gaining votes by putting the subventions back.
The situation where all the work is outsourced to machines, can be OK if those machines are Friendly. I see bigger problem in a possible intermediate situation where most, but not all work is outsourced to machines, and maybe 10% people are able to do the remaining human work, and the remaining 90% are economically useless.
The problem would be one side saying: “Hey guys, if you never work, and just enjoy your 24 hours of free time daily, why exactly should we work so hard just to keep everyone happy? We demand some huge rewards for our efforts!” And the other side would be saying: “Shut up, we are the majority and you are the minority, what makes you think that we would willingly give you higher status, you freaks?”
So the Luddites were partially right, and the problems are not as big as they predicted, because the society pays some money to sweep them under the rug. But if fact, many people today are made useless by technology; we just pretend they remain useful to prevent the social consequences.
We have empirical evidence of what happens when agriculture subsidies disappear—New Zealand ended them all in the early 80s, when they were having financial trouble. Within a few years, their farming sector was actually healthier, because they moved away from being subsidy whores and became farmers, and it turns out that farming is a better business. Also, a revolution? Less than 1% of the first world is farmers. Who exactly would be doing all this revolting?
As for the machines replacing humans bit, I specifically mean “machines” to be the unintelligent ones—AIs are people, not machines.
We’re rather short of full employment right now. Unemployment levels are still close to 8%, and there are currently a lot fewer job openings than there are people seeking employment. I’ve heard some economists contend that it’s in part due to the fact that we’re actually reaching a point where there are fewer “burger flipping jobs” available than there are people trying to fill them. Not everyone can be a programmer.
Even if they’re mistaken, and that isn’t yet the case, if the proportion of jobs that need a human to fill them decreases enough, we’d be bound to reach it eventually.
And even if we take your thought experiment at face value, and assume that all production is outsourced to machines, then you basically suggest that nobody has to work in order to have stuff. Why would people be poor in that situation? The biggest threat would be hedonistic ennui, the self-destructive spiral of boredom and addiction that seems to afflict the vast majority of any group that doesn’t have to work(be it nobility or people on welfare). But you’d never have to worry about a roof over your head.
Due to increased mechanization, we’re producing multiple times more wealth now than we were a hundred years ago. Why should anyone be poor now? The system we have isn’t designed to provide much compensation for people whose productivity is low. It could be, and if it isn’t eventually it’s liable to become a rather large problem.
I never said that this would result in most of the population having no wealth; it’s certainly not a historical inevitability. But our production levels have already come a long way in the past several decades with most of the gains being concentrated in a small proportion of the population.
In the extreme case where almost nobody is producing anything, but some people retain ownership of the means of production, it’s obvious that society isn’t better off if the median citizen isn’t compensated beyond their level of productivity. But we don’t necessarily have to reach that extreme before we reach a point where society as a whole is better off if the median individual is compensated beyond their level of productivity.
Economic cycles exist, and we’re at a bit of a bad point in them right now. I don’t buy the thesis that this is somehow permanent, though—there’s always been a cottage market in talking about how This Time Is Different, whether on the upswing or the downswing, and it hasn’t been right yet. Even if the total amount of labour needed to run a modern society is dropping, that can just as easily be absorbed into shorter work hours instead of unemployment.
Also, by the standards of a hundred years ago, almost nobody(in the developed world) is poor today. The biggest health issue among the poor today is obesity—try telling someone in 1913 that someone who has the cash to buy enough food to get fat is poor. Even the “means of production” have been greatly democratized, with the rise of mutual funds.
It’s not a problem to be ignored, but I don’t intend to worry too much about it. Distributional problems in society have a tendency to get solved, because the people who are on the wrong side of them tend to be the most numerous.
Also, by the standards of a hundred years ago, almost nobody(in the developed world) is poor today. The biggest health issue among the poor today is obesity—try telling someone in 1913 that someone who has the cash to buy enough food to get fat is poor.
Plenty of people can’t afford to pay for their homes. I think that a person from 1913 could accept that a person who could afford the food to get fat is poor if they live in an apartment with twice the people it’s meant to hold and have to budget their paycheck down to the cent to keep their belongings from being repossessed.
It’s not a problem to be ignored, but I don’t intend to worry too much about it. Distributional problems in society have a tendency to get solved, because the people who are on the wrong side of them tend to be the most numerous.
Unfortunately, distributional problems also often end up being solved badly, see for instance the rise of the Soviet Union.
I actually thought of this as an example slightly before sending in the post, and wondered if I should thereby discard the question as resolved. If the workers are really so much dead weight though, I have a hard time seeing the action as ruthless, and if the tradeoff is close to borderline, I’m not sure that as a matter of policy, firing the workers is really beneficial from a societal standpoint.
In a society with sufficiently advanced technology, most or all workers can be replaced by machines, for an increase in wealth production. But if this results in most of the population having no wealth because they’re not doing any useful work, then society as a whole really isn’t better off for it. So I’m inclined to suspect that for a given technology level, the societal optimum is likely to have people compensated on average at some point beyond their own economic productivity.
On the whole, I accept this an an example, but with reservations.
You’re basically making the Luddite argument here—technology will put humans out of work. Empirically, it’s not true. We’ve shifted people away from all the boring stuff machines are good at(plowing fields, welding car frames, etc.), and into the sorts of jobs that actually require a human brain(service industries, largely). But 200 years of industrialization, and we’re still at full employment, with no sign of that changing soon.
And even if we take your thought experiment at face value, and assume that all production is outsourced to machines, then you basically suggest that nobody has to work in order to have stuff. Why would people be poor in that situation? The biggest threat would be hedonistic ennui, the self-destructive spiral of boredom and addiction that seems to afflict the vast majority of any group that doesn’t have to work(be it nobility or people on welfare). But you’d never have to worry about a roof over your head.
The price many states pay to achieve this result is giving tons of money in form of various subventions to people who work in agriculture. So in my opinion, the technology is already able to put many humans out of agriculture… but we are paying them to stay there regardless.
Because if we removed all those subventions, then… well, in theory, in a long term the people would move from agriculture to something else. But in practice, in short term we would most likely have social unrests leading either to a revolution, or to some political party gaining votes by putting the subventions back.
The situation where all the work is outsourced to machines, can be OK if those machines are Friendly. I see bigger problem in a possible intermediate situation where most, but not all work is outsourced to machines, and maybe 10% people are able to do the remaining human work, and the remaining 90% are economically useless.
The problem would be one side saying: “Hey guys, if you never work, and just enjoy your 24 hours of free time daily, why exactly should we work so hard just to keep everyone happy? We demand some huge rewards for our efforts!” And the other side would be saying: “Shut up, we are the majority and you are the minority, what makes you think that we would willingly give you higher status, you freaks?”
So the Luddites were partially right, and the problems are not as big as they predicted, because the society pays some money to sweep them under the rug. But if fact, many people today are made useless by technology; we just pretend they remain useful to prevent the social consequences.
We have empirical evidence of what happens when agriculture subsidies disappear—New Zealand ended them all in the early 80s, when they were having financial trouble. Within a few years, their farming sector was actually healthier, because they moved away from being subsidy whores and became farmers, and it turns out that farming is a better business. Also, a revolution? Less than 1% of the first world is farmers. Who exactly would be doing all this revolting?
As for the machines replacing humans bit, I specifically mean “machines” to be the unintelligent ones—AIs are people, not machines.
We’re rather short of full employment right now. Unemployment levels are still close to 8%, and there are currently a lot fewer job openings than there are people seeking employment. I’ve heard some economists contend that it’s in part due to the fact that we’re actually reaching a point where there are fewer “burger flipping jobs” available than there are people trying to fill them. Not everyone can be a programmer.
Even if they’re mistaken, and that isn’t yet the case, if the proportion of jobs that need a human to fill them decreases enough, we’d be bound to reach it eventually.
Due to increased mechanization, we’re producing multiple times more wealth now than we were a hundred years ago. Why should anyone be poor now? The system we have isn’t designed to provide much compensation for people whose productivity is low. It could be, and if it isn’t eventually it’s liable to become a rather large problem.
I never said that this would result in most of the population having no wealth; it’s certainly not a historical inevitability. But our production levels have already come a long way in the past several decades with most of the gains being concentrated in a small proportion of the population.
In the extreme case where almost nobody is producing anything, but some people retain ownership of the means of production, it’s obvious that society isn’t better off if the median citizen isn’t compensated beyond their level of productivity. But we don’t necessarily have to reach that extreme before we reach a point where society as a whole is better off if the median individual is compensated beyond their level of productivity.
Economic cycles exist, and we’re at a bit of a bad point in them right now. I don’t buy the thesis that this is somehow permanent, though—there’s always been a cottage market in talking about how This Time Is Different, whether on the upswing or the downswing, and it hasn’t been right yet. Even if the total amount of labour needed to run a modern society is dropping, that can just as easily be absorbed into shorter work hours instead of unemployment.
Also, by the standards of a hundred years ago, almost nobody(in the developed world) is poor today. The biggest health issue among the poor today is obesity—try telling someone in 1913 that someone who has the cash to buy enough food to get fat is poor. Even the “means of production” have been greatly democratized, with the rise of mutual funds.
It’s not a problem to be ignored, but I don’t intend to worry too much about it. Distributional problems in society have a tendency to get solved, because the people who are on the wrong side of them tend to be the most numerous.
Plenty of people can’t afford to pay for their homes. I think that a person from 1913 could accept that a person who could afford the food to get fat is poor if they live in an apartment with twice the people it’s meant to hold and have to budget their paycheck down to the cent to keep their belongings from being repossessed.
Unfortunately, distributional problems also often end up being solved badly, see for instance the rise of the Soviet Union.