So competitiveness still matters somewhat, but here’s a potential disagreement we might have: I think we will probably have at least a few months, and maybe more than a year, where the top one or two teams have AGI (powerful enough to kill everyone if let loose), and nobody else has anything more valuable than an Amazon Mechanical Turk worker.
Definitely a disagreement, I think that before anyone has an AGI that could beat humans in a fistfight, tons of people will have systems much much more valuable than a mechanical turk worker.
Okay. I’ll lower my confidence in my position. I think these two possibilities are strategically different enough, and each sufficiently plausible enough, that we should come up with separate plans/research agendas for both of them. And then those research agendas can be critiqued on their own terms.
For the purposes of this discussion, I think qualifies as a useful tangent, and this is the thread where a related disagreement comes to a head.
Edit: “valuable” was the wrong word. “Better at killing” is more to the point.
Definitely a disagreement, I think that before anyone has an AGI that could beat humans in a fistfight, tons of people will have systems much much more valuable than a mechanical turk worker.
Okay. I’ll lower my confidence in my position. I think these two possibilities are strategically different enough, and each sufficiently plausible enough, that we should come up with separate plans/research agendas for both of them. And then those research agendas can be critiqued on their own terms.
For the purposes of this discussion, I think qualifies as a useful tangent, and this is the thread where a related disagreement comes to a head.
Edit: “valuable” was the wrong word. “Better at killing” is more to the point.