This shortform serves as a repository for my initial considerations for my forecast on the following Metaculus question (* see below for question link):
Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism (Wikipedia). The first gene-edited babies—Lulu and Nana—were reportedly born in October 2018.
How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?
Question resolves according to birth counts given in the first authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to cover the entire 2029 calendar year, as well as all years preceding it.
After reading this, the following questions come to mind:
How many gene-edited babies have been born thus far (as of February 19th 2022)? [base-rate]
What are people’s current attitudes towards human gene-editing?
How might people’s attitudes towards human gene-editing change?
How much do people’s attitudes towards human gene-editing affect the regulations and policies on human gene-editing?
Are there historical technologies that fill similar societal niches, and if so, how did they turn out?
How likely is human gene-editing to take off (also, given this, how much will it take off?)?
Given this information, I doubt this base-rate is of much use, and believe instead that the use of gene-editing in humans will follow a nonlinear growth trajectory, with initialization occurring when the first nation legalizes human gene-editing.
I believe that, should people come to accept or desire human gene-editing, be it for treatment or enhancement, the scientific community will be unable to prevent these technologies from being used, somewhere.
Next, I believe that India might be one of the first few countries to approve use of human gene-editing; should India, or a cohort of other nations, adopt human gene-editing, I believe that this might rapidly (within 1 year) shift the Overton Window towards acceptance of human gene-editing, especially if the results of the editing appear to be promising.
Okay, so will any nation widely adopted human gene-editing? A Google search of “human gene editing india” produces results that give credence to the idea that, while human gene-editing in banned in India, there are many ambiguities in the laws, and many laws do not seem readily enforced. Many other nations surveyed in the PEW report also seem to have regulations on human gene-editing existing in “legal limbo”.
(5 & forecast) I would put the probability of at least one country adopting human gene-editing in the next 8 years (2029 is about 8 years away) at 35% (adoption scenario). So, the probability that no country adopts human gene-editing in the next 8 years would 65% (non-adoption scenario).
The adoption scenario (some nation(s) adopt(s) human gene-editing before 2029): I believe that the number of gene-edited humans might grow at a similar rate to how Internet usage grew (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Internet#1989%E2%80%932004:_Rise_of_the_global_Internet,_Web_1.0 & https://www.internetworldstats.com/emarketing.htm), i.e. adoption of human gene-editing will be limited for the first 2-5 years, perhaps to treatment oriented use cases, before truly taking off (I believe usage for enhancement purpose might follow treatment usage in ~3 years). I believe this because both human gene-editing and the Internet appear to both be transformative technologies, and sentiment on human gene-editing appears similar (maybe more negative than simply disinterested) to early Internet usage sentiment. Sentiment against human gene-editing globally seems strong enough to make me believe that any “initial usage” will not occur until at least 2025. I believe that initial usage (including scenarios where more than a single nation adopts human gene-editing) over these 3-4 years will very likely be less than 10000 use cases. I believe that the first year might see something on the order of 250-1000 cases (25% lower bound − 75% upper bound), and, following the pattern of Internet growth, will increase to ~560-2250, then to ~1090-4365, and finally to ~2290-9170.
The non-adoption scenario (no nation legalizes human gene-editing): In this scenario, I believe there may still be somewhere between 5 and 100 (25% lower bound and 75% upper bound, respectively) illegal gene-edited births in the 8 years leading up to 2029.
So, altogether, the expected lower bound is [0.35 x 2290] + [0.65 x 5] = 801.5 + 3.25 = 804.75 = ~805 births, and the expected upper bound is [0.35 x 9170] + [0.65 x 100] = 3209.5 + 6.5 = 3216.0.
Until I take another look at this question, I put my current forecast at 805-3216.
Purpose
This shortform serves as a repository for my initial considerations for my forecast on the following Metaculus question (* see below for question link):
Forecast
How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?
This question was authored by Pablo on Metaculus.
After reading this, the following questions come to mind:
How many gene-edited babies have been born thus far (as of February 19th 2022)? [base-rate]
What are people’s current attitudes towards human gene-editing?
How might people’s attitudes towards human gene-editing change?
How much do people’s attitudes towards human gene-editing affect the regulations and policies on human gene-editing?
Are there historical technologies that fill similar societal niches, and if so, how did they turn out?
How likely is human gene-editing to take off (also, given this, how much will it take off?)?
(1) This source (https://getanimated.uk.com/meet-lulu-and-nana-the-worlds-first-crispr-genome-edited-babies/), along with Eli’s comment on this question (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3289/how-many-gene-edited-babies-will-have-been-born-worldwide-by-the-end-of-2029/#comment-79822), make me believe that the base rate is 2 (I count the twins, Lula and Nana, as a single instance of gene-edited babies) in 2022 − 2019 = 3 years (the question was written in 2019).
(2-4 & 6) Human gene-editing seems to be highly divisive in the scientific community (see https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3000224&type=printable). Also, generally, people seem to be averse to gene-editing in humans for enhancement purposes, but seem to agree that gene-editing may be useful for treatment of disease (see https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/). This previous source from the PEW Research Center also indicates that religion is the dominant factor in people’s acceptance of human gene-editing. Indian survey respondents supported gene-editing in humans the most, and deemed it appropriate by a large margin.
Given this information, I doubt this base-rate is of much use, and believe instead that the use of gene-editing in humans will follow a nonlinear growth trajectory, with initialization occurring when the first nation legalizes human gene-editing.
I believe that, should people come to accept or desire human gene-editing, be it for treatment or enhancement, the scientific community will be unable to prevent these technologies from being used, somewhere.
Next, I believe that India might be one of the first few countries to approve use of human gene-editing; should India, or a cohort of other nations, adopt human gene-editing, I believe that this might rapidly (within 1 year) shift the Overton Window towards acceptance of human gene-editing, especially if the results of the editing appear to be promising.
Okay, so will any nation widely adopted human gene-editing? A Google search of “human gene editing india” produces results that give credence to the idea that, while human gene-editing in banned in India, there are many ambiguities in the laws, and many laws do not seem readily enforced. Many other nations surveyed in the PEW report also seem to have regulations on human gene-editing existing in “legal limbo”.
(5 & forecast) I would put the probability of at least one country adopting human gene-editing in the next 8 years (2029 is about 8 years away) at 35% (adoption scenario). So, the probability that no country adopts human gene-editing in the next 8 years would 65% (non-adoption scenario).
The adoption scenario (some nation(s) adopt(s) human gene-editing before 2029): I believe that the number of gene-edited humans might grow at a similar rate to how Internet usage grew (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Internet#1989%E2%80%932004:_Rise_of_the_global_Internet,_Web_1.0 & https://www.internetworldstats.com/emarketing.htm), i.e. adoption of human gene-editing will be limited for the first 2-5 years, perhaps to treatment oriented use cases, before truly taking off (I believe usage for enhancement purpose might follow treatment usage in ~3 years). I believe this because both human gene-editing and the Internet appear to both be transformative technologies, and sentiment on human gene-editing appears similar (maybe more negative than simply disinterested) to early Internet usage sentiment. Sentiment against human gene-editing globally seems strong enough to make me believe that any “initial usage” will not occur until at least 2025. I believe that initial usage (including scenarios where more than a single nation adopts human gene-editing) over these 3-4 years will very likely be less than 10000 use cases. I believe that the first year might see something on the order of 250-1000 cases (25% lower bound − 75% upper bound), and, following the pattern of Internet growth, will increase to ~560-2250, then to ~1090-4365, and finally to ~2290-9170.
The non-adoption scenario (no nation legalizes human gene-editing): In this scenario, I believe there may still be somewhere between 5 and 100 (25% lower bound and 75% upper bound, respectively) illegal gene-edited births in the 8 years leading up to 2029.
So, altogether, the expected lower bound is [0.35 x 2290] + [0.65 x 5] = 801.5 + 3.25 = 804.75 = ~805 births, and the expected upper bound is [0.35 x 9170] + [0.65 x 100] = 3209.5 + 6.5 = 3216.0.
Until I take another look at this question, I put my current forecast at 805-3216.
(*)