my main point is just that this is a stance many people take [...] putting effort into accommodating this stance, rather than unraveling it
Formulating what might be going on gives something specific to talk about. But then what’s the point to settling on an emotional valence? Discussing the error seems interesting, regardless of what attitude that props up. The patch I proposed actually preserves the positive qualities, isn’t a demonstration of their absence.
>There is rarely a reason to prefer a particular step of a large journey over all other steps.That’s the character of curiosity.
I didn’t get the essence of your proposal from this. Could you phrase this as advice to, for example, Elon Musk (taking Elon as an example of someone who’s making good use of slightly delusional “beliefs” about his plans, while still remaining very solidly in contact with reality)?
I agree he’s exceptionally well in contact with reality. But also part of his “setting goals” involves making “predictions” about timelines. Which are very often wrong, quantitatively (while being correct “in spirit” in the sense that they achieve the goal, just later than “predicted”).
When a civilization gets curious, each individual only gets to work on a few observations, and most of these observations are not going to be foreknowably more important than others, or useful in isolation from others that are not even anticipated at the time, yet the whole activity is worthwhile. So absence of a reason to pursue a particular activity compared to other activities is no reason for not taking it seriously. It’s only presence of a reason to take up a different activity that warrants change.
What if there’s an abundance of specific reasons to take up various activities, and which ones you want to invest in seems to depend heavily on “follow through”, i.e. “are people going to keep working on this”?
abundance of specific reasons to take up various activities [...] “are people going to keep working on this”?
With some transitivity of preference and a world that’s not perpetually chaotically unsettled, people or organizations should be able to find something to work on for which they have no clearly better alternatives. My point is that this is good and worth doing well even when there is no reason to see what they are currently doing as clearly better than the other things they might’ve been doing instead. And if not enough people work on something, it won’t get done, which is OK if there is no reason to prefer it to other things people are actually working on (assuming that neglectedness is not forgotten as a reason to prefer something).
And if not enough people work on something, it won’t get done, which is OK if there is no reason to prefer it to other things people are actually working on
Well, one might prefer that something rather than nothing gets done. In which case it matters whether other people will work on it. In particular, when an organization with multiple people “decides” to do something, that’s tied up with believing that they will work on it, which affects motivation to work on it.
even when there is no reason to see what they are currently doing as a clearly better alternative to the other things they might’ve been doing instead
So, if you believe that you’re doing an “objectively” better plan, in particular you think that other people will recognize that your plan is good, and will want to work on it; so your belief is tied up with acting in a way that will be successful if other people will continue your work.
Formulating what might be going on gives something specific to talk about. But then what’s the point to settling on an emotional valence? Discussing the error seems interesting, regardless of what attitude that props up. The patch I proposed actually preserves the positive qualities, isn’t a demonstration of their absence.
>There is rarely a reason to prefer a particular step of a large journey over all other steps.That’s the character of curiosity.
I didn’t get the essence of your proposal from this. Could you phrase this as advice to, for example, Elon Musk (taking Elon as an example of someone who’s making good use of slightly delusional “beliefs” about his plans, while still remaining very solidly in contact with reality)?
Elon is one of the least delusional people. Not many people start companies like Elon when they believe there’s only a ten percent chance of success.
Elon sets goals that often won’t be archieved but that’s not the same as having delusional beliefs.
I agree he’s exceptionally well in contact with reality. But also part of his “setting goals” involves making “predictions” about timelines. Which are very often wrong, quantitatively (while being correct “in spirit” in the sense that they achieve the goal, just later than “predicted”).
Elon generally is not public about the likelihood of various events in timelines and speaks about his timelines as being optimistic guesses.
When a civilization gets curious, each individual only gets to work on a few observations, and most of these observations are not going to be foreknowably more important than others, or useful in isolation from others that are not even anticipated at the time, yet the whole activity is worthwhile. So absence of a reason to pursue a particular activity compared to other activities is no reason for not taking it seriously. It’s only presence of a reason to take up a different activity that warrants change.
What if there’s an abundance of specific reasons to take up various activities, and which ones you want to invest in seems to depend heavily on “follow through”, i.e. “are people going to keep working on this”?
With some transitivity of preference and a world that’s not perpetually chaotically unsettled, people or organizations should be able to find something to work on for which they have no clearly better alternatives. My point is that this is good and worth doing well even when there is no reason to see what they are currently doing as clearly better than the other things they might’ve been doing instead. And if not enough people work on something, it won’t get done, which is OK if there is no reason to prefer it to other things people are actually working on (assuming that neglectedness is not forgotten as a reason to prefer something).
Well, one might prefer that something rather than nothing gets done. In which case it matters whether other people will work on it. In particular, when an organization with multiple people “decides” to do something, that’s tied up with believing that they will work on it, which affects motivation to work on it.
So, if you believe that you’re doing an “objectively” better plan, in particular you think that other people will recognize that your plan is good, and will want to work on it; so your belief is tied up with acting in a way that will be successful if other people will continue your work.