Increase the probability that homeopathy works for me- but also increase the probability of all other competing hypotheses except the “sugar placebo” one. The next most plausible hypothesis at that point is probably that the effort is related to my mother’s recommendation. Unless I expect the knowledge gained here to extend to something else, at some point I’ll probably stop trying to explain it.
At some point, though, this hypothetical veers into “I wouldn’t explain X because X wouldn’t happen” territory. Hypothetical results don’t have to be generated in the same fashion as real results, and so may have unreal explanations.
Increase the probability that homeopathy works for me- but also increase the probability of all other competing hypotheses except the “sugar placebo” one. The next most plausible hypothesis at that point is probably that the effort is related to my mother’s recommendation. Unless I expect the knowledge gained here to extend to something else, at some point I’ll probably stop trying to explain it.
At some point, though, this hypothetical veers into “I wouldn’t explain X because X wouldn’t happen” territory. Hypothetical results don’t have to be generated in the same fashion as real results, and so may have unreal explanations.