How so? Could there ever be reprociation in Europe without a kind of catharsis through another disaster culturally, and American hegemony militarily? I think that on the whole what’s surprising about the 20th century is how little we lost in its mind-boggling soul-crushing catastrophes, not that we had them.
Oh, and how was the US “marxist” (in any meaningful sense that makes it such a bad thing) at that point?
No Versailles, no National Socialist rise to power, no Hitler, no Holocaust
The Soviet Union is much smaller. It seems much less likley to dominate Eastern Europe and that part of the world is under German and Austria-Hungarian domination. Standards of living in Eastern Europe are as a result higher. Ukraine at the very least dosne’t experience the Holodomor. Who knows perhaps Germans and Austrians even manage to do what the Entente couldn’t and stamp out the Bolsheviks of Russia. In any case the mass slaughter and destruction of the Great Patriotic War are probably fully avoided.
Japanese expansion in the Far East is probably more limited, reducing the possibility of a Japanese-American war
National humiliation in France and Britian could perhaps result in either a Fascist or Communist take over. But both seem pretty unlikely. Even if they do happen, France in itself is far too weak for any revanchist warmongering, while Britain could only manage this if it was willing to lose its empire. And neither seem that likely to receive American support in such a war unless a US president does a FDR on steroids.
The Middle East remains under Ottoman control for the time being, I have a strong feeling that the Middle East several decades later in a alternative 2012 would be much less messed up than it currently is.
The immediate effects seem pretty darn beneficial and hard to beat. The end of the first world war with a Central powers victory basically changes the balance of power making Britain a second rate force decades earlier, preventing a Soviet rise to power, America remains much more isolationist… I have a very hard time seeing anything like a part two to that struggle.
A Stalin like figure might decide to try and invade central Europe but this seems unlikely. An American-Japanese war is still possible, but it seems unlikely to involve a European theatre in itself.
Did I mention we avoid the fucking holocaust and keep large chunks of Eastern Europe away and safe from Bolsheviks at least during their most damaging and bloodthirsty years? It just seems so overwhelmingly likely that this is a better world that I’m mystified why anyone would think it very likley to be worse.
Reducing the relevance of a global Communist vs. Capitalist struggle narrative also seems to much reduce the possibility of global annihilation. Maybe nukes are used in one or two ill though out wars, but then again nukes where used in our time line in a ill thought out war and we didn’t turn out so bad.
Ah! You meant German victory! (or, at least, whatever the German masses would accept as victory or an honorable draw); I hadn’t even thought about that; my first reaction was “So the French and the British bleed Germany dry on their own and impose an even harsher treaty”, and I just went on from there. I’ll have to consiider the above in detail, thanks a lot. This indeed sounds agreeable.
Yes I guess I should have stated that without US involvement a Central powers victory seemed to me likely. Things like the Battle of Caporetto, show pretty clearly that positional warfare was slowly coming to an end and that the Central powers where making surprisingly effective tactical innovations.
Germans would probably consider the gains in the East and Serbia being a puppet or occupied by Austro-Hungary to be a victory. Note that both where basically already achieved at that point if just the French and British would stop fighting! With the Russians out of the war and no American support, it seems likely the French and British would at least consider a peace treaty.
They could perhaps secure an independent Serbia in their negotiations but I can’t see any further gains. Such a peace treaty would be seen as a German victory and at the very least Germany wouldn’t have to become the scape goat for the war and wouldn’t be forced to pay massive reparations.
This is a counter-factual but I’m pretty sure the world would be a much better place had the US not intervened in the First World War.
How so? Could there ever be reprociation in Europe without a kind of catharsis through another disaster culturally, and American hegemony militarily? I think that on the whole what’s surprising about the 20th century is how little we lost in its mind-boggling soul-crushing catastrophes, not that we had them.
Oh, and how was the US “marxist” (in any meaningful sense that makes it such a bad thing) at that point?
No Versailles, no National Socialist rise to power, no Hitler, no Holocaust
The Soviet Union is much smaller. It seems much less likley to dominate Eastern Europe and that part of the world is under German and Austria-Hungarian domination. Standards of living in Eastern Europe are as a result higher. Ukraine at the very least dosne’t experience the Holodomor. Who knows perhaps Germans and Austrians even manage to do what the Entente couldn’t and stamp out the Bolsheviks of Russia. In any case the mass slaughter and destruction of the Great Patriotic War are probably fully avoided.
Japanese expansion in the Far East is probably more limited, reducing the possibility of a Japanese-American war
National humiliation in France and Britian could perhaps result in either a Fascist or Communist take over. But both seem pretty unlikely. Even if they do happen, France in itself is far too weak for any revanchist warmongering, while Britain could only manage this if it was willing to lose its empire. And neither seem that likely to receive American support in such a war unless a US president does a FDR on steroids.
The Middle East remains under Ottoman control for the time being, I have a strong feeling that the Middle East several decades later in a alternative 2012 would be much less messed up than it currently is.
The immediate effects seem pretty darn beneficial and hard to beat. The end of the first world war with a Central powers victory basically changes the balance of power making Britain a second rate force decades earlier, preventing a Soviet rise to power, America remains much more isolationist… I have a very hard time seeing anything like a part two to that struggle.
A Stalin like figure might decide to try and invade central Europe but this seems unlikely. An American-Japanese war is still possible, but it seems unlikely to involve a European theatre in itself.
Did I mention we avoid the fucking holocaust and keep large chunks of Eastern Europe away and safe from Bolsheviks at least during their most damaging and bloodthirsty years? It just seems so overwhelmingly likely that this is a better world that I’m mystified why anyone would think it very likley to be worse.
Reducing the relevance of a global Communist vs. Capitalist struggle narrative also seems to much reduce the possibility of global annihilation. Maybe nukes are used in one or two ill though out wars, but then again nukes where used in our time line in a ill thought out war and we didn’t turn out so bad.
Ah! You meant German victory! (or, at least, whatever the German masses would accept as victory or an honorable draw); I hadn’t even thought about that; my first reaction was “So the French and the British bleed Germany dry on their own and impose an even harsher treaty”, and I just went on from there. I’ll have to consiider the above in detail, thanks a lot. This indeed sounds agreeable.
Yes I guess I should have stated that without US involvement a Central powers victory seemed to me likely. Things like the Battle of Caporetto, show pretty clearly that positional warfare was slowly coming to an end and that the Central powers where making surprisingly effective tactical innovations.
Germans would probably consider the gains in the East and Serbia being a puppet or occupied by Austro-Hungary to be a victory. Note that both where basically already achieved at that point if just the French and British would stop fighting! With the Russians out of the war and no American support, it seems likely the French and British would at least consider a peace treaty.
They could perhaps secure an independent Serbia in their negotiations but I can’t see any further gains. Such a peace treaty would be seen as a German victory and at the very least Germany wouldn’t have to become the scape goat for the war and wouldn’t be forced to pay massive reparations.