How could I have better predicted this? I remain at a loss.
It’s not a good answer, but statistics. Currently you have something like
“there are criteria for accepting or rejecting beliefs, this belief fails the criteria, people won’t believe it”. That in turn relies on either
“I have criteria, most people are like me, most people have criteria” or
“criteria for accepting/rejecting is fundamental to human brain”. It also relies on
“I think this belief fails the criteria; my thought process here is not atypical” and
“my model of the criteria is correct”.
Whereas statistics are simply a description of what people believe.
But that hardly addresses the cause.
It’s not a good answer, but statistics. Currently you have something like
“there are criteria for accepting or rejecting beliefs, this belief fails the criteria, people won’t believe it”. That in turn relies on either
“I have criteria, most people are like me, most people have criteria” or
“criteria for accepting/rejecting is fundamental to human brain”. It also relies on
“I think this belief fails the criteria; my thought process here is not atypical” and
“my model of the criteria is correct”.
Whereas statistics are simply a description of what people believe.
But that hardly addresses the cause.