Yeah, that’s true. I don’t recall exactly what I was thinking.
Perhaps it was regarding time-weighting, and the difficulty of seeing what your score will be based on what you predict—but the Metaculus interface handles this well, modulus early closings, which screw lots of things up. Also, log-scoring is tricky when you have both continuous and binary outcomes, since they don’t give similar measures—being well calibrated for binary events isn’t “worth” as much, which seems perverse in many ways.
Yeah, that’s true. I don’t recall exactly what I was thinking.
Perhaps it was regarding time-weighting, and the difficulty of seeing what your score will be based on what you predict—but the Metaculus interface handles this well, modulus early closings, which screw lots of things up. Also, log-scoring is tricky when you have both continuous and binary outcomes, since they don’t give similar measures—being well calibrated for binary events isn’t “worth” as much, which seems perverse in many ways.