Can you clarify what you mean by “successfully formalised”? I’m not sure if I can answer that question but I can say the following:
Stanford’s encyclopedia has a discussion of ratifiability dating back to the 1960s and (by the 1980s) it has been applied to both EDT and CDT (which I’d expect, given that constraints on having an accurate world model should be independent of decision theory). This gives me confidence that it’s not just a random Less Wrong thing.
Abram Dempski from MIRI has a whole sequence on when CDT=EDT which leverages ratifiability as a sub-assumption. This gives me confidence that ratifiability is actually onto something (the Less Wrong stamp of approval is important!)
Whether any of this means that it’s been “successfully formalised”, I can’t really say. From the outside-view POV, I literally did not know about the conventional version of CDT until yesterday. Thus, I do not really view myself as someone currently capable of verifying the extent to which a decision theory has been successfully formalised. Still, I consider this version of CDT old enough historically and well-enough-discussed on Less Wrong by Known Smart People that I have high confidence in it.
Can you clarify what you mean by “successfully formalised”? I’m not sure if I can answer that question but I can say the following:
Stanford’s encyclopedia has a discussion of ratifiability dating back to the 1960s and (by the 1980s) it has been applied to both EDT and CDT (which I’d expect, given that constraints on having an accurate world model should be independent of decision theory). This gives me confidence that it’s not just a random Less Wrong thing.
Abram Dempski from MIRI has a whole sequence on when CDT=EDT which leverages ratifiability as a sub-assumption. This gives me confidence that ratifiability is actually onto something (the Less Wrong stamp of approval is important!)
Whether any of this means that it’s been “successfully formalised”, I can’t really say. From the outside-view POV, I literally did not know about the conventional version of CDT until yesterday. Thus, I do not really view myself as someone currently capable of verifying the extent to which a decision theory has been successfully formalised. Still, I consider this version of CDT old enough historically and well-enough-discussed on Less Wrong by Known Smart People that I have high confidence in it.