If it wasn’t clear, I currently put extremely low probability on these, and on the general class of things that would make it simultaneously desirable and difficult to move from where I am now. However, the probability has risen by orders of magnitude (from vanishing to vaguely worrying to almost enough to invest in serious consideration) in the last few years, and then the last few months, and then the last few weeks. Still well below half a percent, say, across all possibilities.
I currently plan to stay and work toward preventing the worst possibilities. But at some point, if it gets another 1-2 orders of magnitude worse, my strategy will flip. And I’d like to figure out low-effort and low-expected-loss actions I can take to measure more closely, and to minimize the pain if I do have to switch.
get familiar with local laws (and language?), and make some contacts so that if you decide to go, you have local people to help you.
This is brilliant. The value of social/cultural connections is easy to undervalue, and likely has rewards commensurate with the effort even if nightmare scenarios don’t come to pass. We don’t give or hear the advice “make friends” often enough in the context of rational life strategies. We probably do hear it enough in the context of fluffy psychological strategies, but at least my mind has a strong partition between those domains.
If it wasn’t clear, I currently put extremely low probability on these, and on the general class of things that would make it simultaneously desirable and difficult to move from where I am now. However, the probability has risen by orders of magnitude (from vanishing to vaguely worrying to almost enough to invest in serious consideration) in the last few years, and then the last few months, and then the last few weeks. Still well below half a percent, say, across all possibilities.
I currently plan to stay and work toward preventing the worst possibilities. But at some point, if it gets another 1-2 orders of magnitude worse, my strategy will flip. And I’d like to figure out low-effort and low-expected-loss actions I can take to measure more closely, and to minimize the pain if I do have to switch.
This is brilliant. The value of social/cultural connections is easy to undervalue, and likely has rewards commensurate with the effort even if nightmare scenarios don’t come to pass. We don’t give or hear the advice “make friends” often enough in the context of rational life strategies. We probably do hear it enough in the context of fluffy psychological strategies, but at least my mind has a strong partition between those domains.