In the grand scheme of things, that would not matter much.
If China wants to fully reintegrate Taiwan, it can today, or else simply at lastest in a few years.
I guess if China is not doing that in the near future, the main reason will be that (i) there is simply no big enough value in it and/or (ii) there is significant value for the government to have the Taiwan issue as a story for its citizen to focus on/sort of rally-behind-the-flag effect. But less so the effect of US deterrence.
The problem is that using Taiwan as an area for citizens to focus on is that Chinese citizens expect their government to take steps to reintegrate Taiwan. Careers inside the CCP are built on taking steps to reintegrate Taiwan.
If the Chinese start to believe that Taiwan can be taken in a short time frame and Xi does not take it, that’s not good for his reelection bid in four years. He needs to tell a narrative about why he didn’t move to take it that’s compatible with what people in the CCP want to hear. “We didn’t take Taiwan because China is too weak and the US is too strong” might not be a narrative that Xi wants to tell.
In the grand scheme of things, that would not matter much. If China wants to fully reintegrate Taiwan, it can today, or else simply at lastest in a few years. I guess if China is not doing that in the near future, the main reason will be that (i) there is simply no big enough value in it and/or (ii) there is significant value for the government to have the Taiwan issue as a story for its citizen to focus on/sort of rally-behind-the-flag effect. But less so the effect of US deterrence.
The problem is that using Taiwan as an area for citizens to focus on is that Chinese citizens expect their government to take steps to reintegrate Taiwan. Careers inside the CCP are built on taking steps to reintegrate Taiwan.
If the Chinese start to believe that Taiwan can be taken in a short time frame and Xi does not take it, that’s not good for his reelection bid in four years. He needs to tell a narrative about why he didn’t move to take it that’s compatible with what people in the CCP want to hear. “We didn’t take Taiwan because China is too weak and the US is too strong” might not be a narrative that Xi wants to tell.