>The fact that you use some set of priors is a physical phenomenon.
Sure, but irrelevant. My prior is exactly the same in all scenarios—I am chosen randomly from the set of observers according to the Solomonoff universal prior. I condition based on my experiences, updating this prior to a posterior, which is Solomonoff induction. This process reproduces all the predictions of SIA. No part of this process requires information that I can’t physically get access to, except the part that requires actually computing Solomonoff as it’s uncomputable. In practice, we approximate the result of Solomonoff as best we can, just like we can never actually put pure Bayesianism into effect.
Just claiming that you’ve disproven some theory with an unnecessarily complex example that’s not targeted towards the theory in question and refusing to elaborate isn’t going to convince many.
You should also stop talking as if your paradoxes prove anything. At best, they present a bullet that various anthropic theories need to bite, and which some people may find counter-intuitive. I don’t find it counter-intuitive, but I might not be understanding the core of your theory yet.
>SIA is asserting more than events A, B, and C are equal prior probability.
Like what?
I’m going to put together a simplified version of your scenario and model it out carefully with priors and posteriors to explain where you’re going wrong.
>The fact that you use some set of priors is a physical phenomenon.
Sure, but irrelevant. My prior is exactly the same in all scenarios—I am chosen randomly from the set of observers according to the Solomonoff universal prior. I condition based on my experiences, updating this prior to a posterior, which is Solomonoff induction. This process reproduces all the predictions of SIA. No part of this process requires information that I can’t physically get access to, except the part that requires actually computing Solomonoff as it’s uncomputable. In practice, we approximate the result of Solomonoff as best we can, just like we can never actually put pure Bayesianism into effect.
Just claiming that you’ve disproven some theory with an unnecessarily complex example that’s not targeted towards the theory in question and refusing to elaborate isn’t going to convince many.
You should also stop talking as if your paradoxes prove anything. At best, they present a bullet that various anthropic theories need to bite, and which some people may find counter-intuitive. I don’t find it counter-intuitive, but I might not be understanding the core of your theory yet.
>SIA is asserting more than events A, B, and C are equal prior probability.
Like what?
I’m going to put together a simplified version of your scenario and model it out carefully with priors and posteriors to explain where you’re going wrong.