I HEREBY DECLARE: Kalshi and PredictIt still have room for LW-style rationalist investors, I reckon. Mostly based on the lowish trade volumes and sometimes being slow/inaccurate to react to new information. Kalshi more so.
(I would’ve added “And FTX’s real-money prediction market”, but they have literally 2 markets as of this writing, and they aren’t available for non-US citizens. Then again, if your a non-US-citizen interested in Bolsonaro’s reelection, that market is likely much less adequate than the Trump market, so go forth!)
I HEREBY DECLARE: Kalshi and PredictIt still have room for LW-style rationalist investors, I reckon. Mostly based on the lowish trade volumes and sometimes being slow/inaccurate to react to new information. Kalshi more so.
(I would’ve added “And FTX’s real-money prediction market”, but they have literally 2 markets as of this writing, and they aren’t available for non-US citizens. Then again, if your a non-US-citizen interested in Bolsonaro’s reelection, that market is likely much less adequate than the Trump market, so go forth!)