One key point to keep in mind is that my arguments aren’t about refuting the idea of slowing down AI, instead it’s about offering a reality check.
The reason I said baby steps is that 1. They might be enough, but 2. even if it isn’t enough, one common failure mode in politics is to go fully maximalist in your agenda first. This is a route to failure for your agenda. It is better instead to progress your agenda from the least controversial/costly, and if necessary go then add more costly/controversial laws. However this is extremely dangerous, a single case of bad publicity or otherwise making it very controversial to govern AI may well doom the effort.
Another lesson for politics is that your opposition (AI companies) is probably rational, but having very different goals compared to the median LW/EA person. So we shouldn’t expect unusually easy wins in this area, and progress will likely be slow, especially in lobbying.
It’s still very useful for AI governance to do it, the high risk does not mean there aren’t high rewards, especially if you think AI Alignment is possible, but governance can help AI Alignment do it’s best, as well as preventing s-risks, but I do think that AI governance may be overestimating what costs the public and companies are willing to bear for regulations. Especially if AI companies can make externalities.
For example, the climate change agenda stalled until solar, wind and batteries became cheap enough in the 2010s that moving out of fossil fuels represented a very cheap way to decarbonize. And still there’s some opposition here.
That’s clarifying. I agree that immediately trying to impose costly/controversial laws would be bad.
What I am personally thinking about first here is “actually trying to clarify the concerns and find consensus with other movements concerned about AI developments” (which by itself does not involve immediate radical law reforms).
We first need to have a basis of common understanding from which legislation can be drawn.
One key point to keep in mind is that my arguments aren’t about refuting the idea of slowing down AI, instead it’s about offering a reality check.
The reason I said baby steps is that 1. They might be enough, but 2. even if it isn’t enough, one common failure mode in politics is to go fully maximalist in your agenda first. This is a route to failure for your agenda. It is better instead to progress your agenda from the least controversial/costly, and if necessary go then add more costly/controversial laws. However this is extremely dangerous, a single case of bad publicity or otherwise making it very controversial to govern AI may well doom the effort.
Another lesson for politics is that your opposition (AI companies) is probably rational, but having very different goals compared to the median LW/EA person. So we shouldn’t expect unusually easy wins in this area, and progress will likely be slow, especially in lobbying.
It’s still very useful for AI governance to do it, the high risk does not mean there aren’t high rewards, especially if you think AI Alignment is possible, but governance can help AI Alignment do it’s best, as well as preventing s-risks, but I do think that AI governance may be overestimating what costs the public and companies are willing to bear for regulations. Especially if AI companies can make externalities.
For example, the climate change agenda stalled until solar, wind and batteries became cheap enough in the 2010s that moving out of fossil fuels represented a very cheap way to decarbonize. And still there’s some opposition here.
That’s clarifying. I agree that immediately trying to impose costly/controversial laws would be bad.
What I am personally thinking about first here is “actually trying to clarify the concerns and find consensus with other movements concerned about AI developments” (which by itself does not involve immediate radical law reforms).
We first need to have a basis of common understanding from which legislation can be drawn.