Of course there’s an important difference between lying and being wrong. It’s a question of knowledge states. Unconscious lying is a case when someone says something they unconsciously know to be false/unlikely.
If the estimates are biased, you can end up with worse beliefs than you would by just using an uninformative prior. Perhaps some are savvy enough to know about the biases involved (in part because of people like me writing posts like the one I wrote), but others aren’t, and get tricked into having worse beliefs than if they had used an uninformative prior.
I am not trying to punish people, I am trying to make agent-based models.
(Regarding Madoff, what you present is suggestive, but it doesn’t prove that he was conscious that he had no plans to trade and was deceiving his investors. We don’t really know what he was conscious of and what he wasn’t.)
Of course there’s an important difference between lying and being wrong. It’s a question of knowledge states. Unconscious lying is a case when someone says something they unconsciously know to be false/unlikely.
If the estimates are biased, you can end up with worse beliefs than you would by just using an uninformative prior. Perhaps some are savvy enough to know about the biases involved (in part because of people like me writing posts like the one I wrote), but others aren’t, and get tricked into having worse beliefs than if they had used an uninformative prior.
I am not trying to punish people, I am trying to make agent-based models.
(Regarding Madoff, what you present is suggestive, but it doesn’t prove that he was conscious that he had no plans to trade and was deceiving his investors. We don’t really know what he was conscious of and what he wasn’t.)