Re: 2: nonprofits and academics have even more incentives than business to claim that a new technology is extremely dangerous. Think tanks and universities are in the knowledge business; they are more valuable when people seek their advice. “This new thing has great opportunities and great risks; you need guidance to navigate and govern it” is a great advertisement for universities and think tanks. Which doesn’t mean AI, narrow or strong, doesn’t actually have great opportunities and risks! But nonprofits and academics aren’t immune from the incentives to exaggerate.
Re: 4: I have a different perspective. The loonies who go to the press with “did you know psychiatric drugs have SIDE EFFECTS?!” are not really a threat to public information to the extent that they are telling the truth. They are a threat to the perceived legitimacy of psychiatrists. This has downsides (some people who could benefit from psychiatric treatment will fear it too much) but fundamentally the loonies are right that a psychiatrist is just a dude who went to school for a long time, not a holy man. To the extent that there is truth in psychiatry, it can withstand the public’s loss of reverence, in the long run. Blind reverence for professionals is a freebie, which locally may be beneficial to the public if the professionals really are wise, but is essentially fragile. IMO it’s not worth trying to cultivate or preserve. In the long run, good stuff will win out, and smart psychiatrists can just as easily frame themselves as agreeing with the anti-psych cranks in spirit, as being on Team Avoid Side Effects And Withdrawal Symptoms, Unlike All Those Dumbasses Who Don’t Care (all two of them).
Re: 2: nonprofits and academics have even more incentives than business to claim that a new technology is extremely dangerous. Think tanks and universities are in the knowledge business; they are more valuable when people seek their advice. “This new thing has great opportunities and great risks; you need guidance to navigate and govern it” is a great advertisement for universities and think tanks. Which doesn’t mean AI, narrow or strong, doesn’t actually have great opportunities and risks! But nonprofits and academics aren’t immune from the incentives to exaggerate.
Re: 4: I have a different perspective. The loonies who go to the press with “did you know psychiatric drugs have SIDE EFFECTS?!” are not really a threat to public information to the extent that they are telling the truth. They are a threat to the perceived legitimacy of psychiatrists. This has downsides (some people who could benefit from psychiatric treatment will fear it too much) but fundamentally the loonies are right that a psychiatrist is just a dude who went to school for a long time, not a holy man. To the extent that there is truth in psychiatry, it can withstand the public’s loss of reverence, in the long run. Blind reverence for professionals is a freebie, which locally may be beneficial to the public if the professionals really are wise, but is essentially fragile. IMO it’s not worth trying to cultivate or preserve. In the long run, good stuff will win out, and smart psychiatrists can just as easily frame themselves as agreeing with the anti-psych cranks in spirit, as being on Team Avoid Side Effects And Withdrawal Symptoms, Unlike All Those Dumbasses Who Don’t Care (all two of them).