Thank you, I’ve now had time to read your post a second time and parse your other questions. Here are my answers.
(What is counterparty risk, by the way?)
The CDC will be an adequate source for this. I don’t know and can’t figure out how to find out when they’ll next release an estimate of how common ASDs are. If they do it before the DSM-V comes out or shortly after it comes out, then I would wait and take not the next but the one after. If they wait until the DSM-V has been in use for a while, and I’m not sure how long a while should be, then maybe just the next one.
I am not well-calibrated enough to give good probability estimates and I worry that I’d just be making something up if I tried to give a number. I also revised down slightly from six hours ago considering what you and Yvain have said. I still think having this out there, even imperfectly, is of social utility because until recently, the better diagnosis model and the epidemic model had both predicted increasing prevalence. I wouldn’t bet on it because, among other reasons, this prediction isn’t really about proving me right or wrong. It’s about proving a model right or wrong. If that model is wrong, then I update. I change my beliefs and actions, but then I move on. I don’t “change sides” or anything like that. However, the model stands or falls here (or at some future predetermined point farther on, if one in 86 is still not the correct prevalence) and if it’s going to survive, I want to see it believed by everyone, partly because proving this model eliminates the vaccine injury model (among others). You, who have reasoned that accumulated mutations are a reasonable model, are really not my opponent here.
I also admit that I want this model to be true because even without the hard work of educating people, it would show that there’s no epidemic to be scared of, which might make educating people easier. That could cloud my judgment, but an empirical test will not have clouded judgment.
The CDC will be an adequate source for this. I don’t know and can’t figure out how to find out when they’ll next release an estimate of how common ASDs are.
My general experience with this sort of thing is that the dataset will be rich and include many different ways of slicing the data and with multiple definitions, so it’s possible to pick and choose numbers to get what you want. Hence, specifying ‘CDC’ is better than specifying no source of data at all, but to make a good prediction one should specify the specific metric in the CDC surveys or reports.
I am not well-calibrated enough to give good probability estimates and I worry that I’d just be making something up if I tried to give a number. I also revised down slightly from six hours ago considering what you and Yvain have said.
If you can’t give a good probability estimate, then no one here will take you seriously nor will you be able to make or accept bets (so no one outside here will take you seriously either). If you want to learn how to do this, my own opinions can be found in http://www.gwern.net/Prediction%20markets
You, who have reasoned that accumulated mutations are a reasonable model, are really not my opponent here.
That’s Yvain, not me. I read the recent correlative study like everyone else and find it interesting, but I’m not sure how persuasive I find it.
Fair enough?
If you’re really serious about it… What I would’ve done, if I had this sort of big public statement in mind, is written up a brief precis of why the diagnosis model is right, why I expect diagnosis-driven increases to level off soon (in stock market shorting, they have an expression: ‘don’t try to catch a falling knife’. When you short a stock, knowing when to start shorting is as important as knowing what is overpriced, because ‘the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent’), what my exact metrics will be, what probability I assign over what periods, cryptographically sign my statement, and challenge some prominent anti-diagnosticers to bets on those terms—ideally through LongBets.org for nice round sums like $100, $500, or $1000.
Is this a lot of work? Yes! But you are trying to buy credibility, attention, and change minds down the line; you should not expect that to be cheap or easy.
Especially since he immediately stopped commenting (last comment November 2012), and there’s no way to track him down to a real name, so if one had made a bet with him and won, how could one collect?
Thank you, I’ve now had time to read your post a second time and parse your other questions. Here are my answers.
(What is counterparty risk, by the way?)
The CDC will be an adequate source for this. I don’t know and can’t figure out how to find out when they’ll next release an estimate of how common ASDs are. If they do it before the DSM-V comes out or shortly after it comes out, then I would wait and take not the next but the one after. If they wait until the DSM-V has been in use for a while, and I’m not sure how long a while should be, then maybe just the next one.
I am not well-calibrated enough to give good probability estimates and I worry that I’d just be making something up if I tried to give a number. I also revised down slightly from six hours ago considering what you and Yvain have said. I still think having this out there, even imperfectly, is of social utility because until recently, the better diagnosis model and the epidemic model had both predicted increasing prevalence. I wouldn’t bet on it because, among other reasons, this prediction isn’t really about proving me right or wrong. It’s about proving a model right or wrong. If that model is wrong, then I update. I change my beliefs and actions, but then I move on. I don’t “change sides” or anything like that. However, the model stands or falls here (or at some future predetermined point farther on, if one in 86 is still not the correct prevalence) and if it’s going to survive, I want to see it believed by everyone, partly because proving this model eliminates the vaccine injury model (among others). You, who have reasoned that accumulated mutations are a reasonable model, are really not my opponent here.
I also admit that I want this model to be true because even without the hard work of educating people, it would show that there’s no epidemic to be scared of, which might make educating people easier. That could cloud my judgment, but an empirical test will not have clouded judgment.
Fair enough?
My general experience with this sort of thing is that the dataset will be rich and include many different ways of slicing the data and with multiple definitions, so it’s possible to pick and choose numbers to get what you want. Hence, specifying ‘CDC’ is better than specifying no source of data at all, but to make a good prediction one should specify the specific metric in the CDC surveys or reports.
If you can’t give a good probability estimate, then no one here will take you seriously nor will you be able to make or accept bets (so no one outside here will take you seriously either). If you want to learn how to do this, my own opinions can be found in http://www.gwern.net/Prediction%20markets
That’s Yvain, not me. I read the recent correlative study like everyone else and find it interesting, but I’m not sure how persuasive I find it.
If you’re really serious about it… What I would’ve done, if I had this sort of big public statement in mind, is written up a brief precis of why the diagnosis model is right, why I expect diagnosis-driven increases to level off soon (in stock market shorting, they have an expression: ‘don’t try to catch a falling knife’. When you short a stock, knowing when to start shorting is as important as knowing what is overpriced, because ‘the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent’), what my exact metrics will be, what probability I assign over what periods, cryptographically sign my statement, and challenge some prominent anti-diagnosticers to bets on those terms—ideally through LongBets.org for nice round sums like $100, $500, or $1000.
Is this a lot of work? Yes! But you are trying to buy credibility, attention, and change minds down the line; you should not expect that to be cheap or easy.
The risk that if you lose the bet, you don’t pay up. It’s relatively high here because a single-purpose account has no reputation to care about.
Especially since he immediately stopped commenting (last comment November 2012), and there’s no way to track him down to a real name, so if one had made a bet with him and won, how could one collect?