I think this is too many nines. If you have to last 100 years, say, and LN takes over a month to boil off and let the patients thaw, then it’s more like 99.9% uptime.
>if it were actually supported by society
So, I agree with this, but I want to make a clear distinction between a supposed “current default” state of the world/society, vs. what can/will actually happen. When Peter Thiel is asked to predict the future, he responds something like that he doesn’t think it quite makes sense to predict parts of the future that depend on our choices, and it makes more sense to think of it as deciding than predicting. Part of the point of my post is to point out that an important strategic consideration is, “If we all had Hope in this, then would it succeed?”, sometimes more important than “If I act in causal best-response to the current default, what can I get?”. Does this make sense to you? This is maybe the main point I want to get across.
>99.9999%
I think this is too many nines. If you have to last 100 years, say, and LN takes over a month to boil off and let the patients thaw, then it’s more like 99.9% uptime.
>if it were actually supported by society
So, I agree with this, but I want to make a clear distinction between a supposed “current default” state of the world/society, vs. what can/will actually happen. When Peter Thiel is asked to predict the future, he responds something like that he doesn’t think it quite makes sense to predict parts of the future that depend on our choices, and it makes more sense to think of it as deciding than predicting. Part of the point of my post is to point out that an important strategic consideration is, “If we all had Hope in this, then would it succeed?”, sometimes more important than “If I act in causal best-response to the current default, what can I get?”. Does this make sense to you? This is maybe the main point I want to get across.