Down by 30 I probably put in backups to make sure my best players don’t get injured, and play to run out the clock. Winning would require a record-breaking comeback, and even if we go all-out to win the chances of pulling it off are tiny, maybe 1 in a million.
Though I guess if it’s the playoffs then I keep playing for the win. Regular season it would be worth playing for the win if we’re down by 20 instead of 30.
Generally teams do adjust their tactics in the right direction in these sorts of situations, but not by enough on average. NFL teams play faster when trailing by multiple scores, but they usually don’t shift to the full-fledged hurry-up offense that they use when time is running low at the end of the half. Teams go for it more on 4th down, but there are still plenty of cowardly punts. Quarterbacks throw more interceptions due to trying to make more risky passes down the field into tight coverage—I guess I’m less sure about how to tell whether they do too little of that. We don’t see many trick plays in these situations—something like a flea flicker might not be that effective when the defense is playing it safe, but I expect that using more laterals (like a hook & ladder play) would be worth the risk (though I’m not sure about the cost-benefit of putting those on tape vs. saving them for higher leverage situations).
Yup, I agree with all of that. Towards the end of the post I was trying to make that point about how most of the time, like in the regular season, you shouldn’t play to win because there are those other considerations. And that really, it is quite rare that you actually need to play to win. Usually there are other considerations. (Which is why that clip of Herm Edwards is ignorant and funny.)
I wasn’t planning on saying it explicitly, but I had AI alignment and Eliezer’s recent post about Death With Dignity in mind as an exception. When the world is ending in ~10 years, that strikes me as a time when you actually do need to play to win. Other considerations pale in comparison to that. (And you need to throw some deep passes since you’re down by 30.)
Also, funnily enough I did have the hook & ladder in mind when I mentioned trick plays. I know as much about X’s and O’s as the average fan though, so I was also thinking that a talented play caller might be able to come up with better ideas.
Down by 30 I probably put in backups to make sure my best players don’t get injured, and play to run out the clock. Winning would require a record-breaking comeback, and even if we go all-out to win the chances of pulling it off are tiny, maybe 1 in a million.
Though I guess if it’s the playoffs then I keep playing for the win. Regular season it would be worth playing for the win if we’re down by 20 instead of 30.
Generally teams do adjust their tactics in the right direction in these sorts of situations, but not by enough on average. NFL teams play faster when trailing by multiple scores, but they usually don’t shift to the full-fledged hurry-up offense that they use when time is running low at the end of the half. Teams go for it more on 4th down, but there are still plenty of cowardly punts. Quarterbacks throw more interceptions due to trying to make more risky passes down the field into tight coverage—I guess I’m less sure about how to tell whether they do too little of that. We don’t see many trick plays in these situations—something like a flea flicker might not be that effective when the defense is playing it safe, but I expect that using more laterals (like a hook & ladder play) would be worth the risk (though I’m not sure about the cost-benefit of putting those on tape vs. saving them for higher leverage situations).
Yup, I agree with all of that. Towards the end of the post I was trying to make that point about how most of the time, like in the regular season, you shouldn’t play to win because there are those other considerations. And that really, it is quite rare that you actually need to play to win. Usually there are other considerations. (Which is why that clip of Herm Edwards is ignorant and funny.)
I wasn’t planning on saying it explicitly, but I had AI alignment and Eliezer’s recent post about Death With Dignity in mind as an exception. When the world is ending in ~10 years, that strikes me as a time when you actually do need to play to win. Other considerations pale in comparison to that. (And you need to throw some deep passes since you’re down by 30.)
Also, funnily enough I did have the hook & ladder in mind when I mentioned trick plays. I know as much about X’s and O’s as the average fan though, so I was also thinking that a talented play caller might be able to come up with better ideas.