I am aware of the standard argument that anything resembling an “arrow of time” should be made to stem strictly from the second law of thermodynamics and the low-entropy initial condition. But if you throw out causality along with time, it is hard to see how a low-entropy terminal condition and high-entropy initial condition could produce the same pattern of similar and dissimilar regions.
I don’t completely understand your argument, but note that computing the universe from a low-entropy initial condition might require fewer bits to specify, so something like the universal distribution would give it higher weight. So if the mathematical multiverse assigns observations to observers using a simplicity-based distribution, that might explain why we’re not in an ordered bubble about to be eaten by chaos or something...
I don’t completely understand your argument, but note that computing the universe from a low-entropy initial condition might require fewer bits to specify, so something like the universal distribution would give it higher weight. So if the mathematical multiverse assigns observations to observers using a simplicity-based distribution, that might explain why we’re not in an ordered bubble about to be eaten by chaos or something...