Ah, but is it really paranoia if “they really are out to get you”? :)
I’ve previously demonstrated that I’m willing to make long-shot gambles on 5% odds, given that that’s roughly my estimate of cryonics working and I’ve signed up for it. So let’s try working with that number.
Out of all the possible scenarios of a Trump presidency, if you leave out 95% of the most positive options, how unpleasant is the best-remaining one? Put another way, is there at least a 5% chance of American or international politics descending to the point where my current apparent paranoia seems reasonable? And don’t forget, as you calibrate your answer, that according to FiveThirtyEight, on October 17, Hillary had been predicted to have over an 88% chance of winning, implying that many people, likely including myself, have been massively mis-calibrated about how likely unpleasant political events are.
You don’t place bets based solely on probabilities. You place bets based on probabilities, odds, timescales, investments, and alternative options. Specifically, you place bets to optimize for growth of principle with respect to time. What you’re doing is not placing a bet. If you were placing a bet and wanted feedback, it would have been appropriate to provide a lot more information, such as what you expect to gain from your bet, what you expect to lose in the negative case, what you’re hoping to optimize, what your expected costs are, and what alternatives you’re considering spending your time or money on. It’s not appropriate for you to provide any of that information because what you’re doing is not placing a bet.
What you’re doing is panicking and looking for an echo to tell you that your beliefs are sensible, that the world really is crashing, and that what you’re doing is justified. Your beliefs are not sensible, and the world isn’t really crashing. I don’t know if what you’re doing is justified, as that would require a lot more information, but honestly I think that’s irrelevant.
(A quick FYI, I’m about to try for a good night’s sleep, then compare how I was feeling when I first posted in this thread with however I feel when I wake.)
Ah, but is it really paranoia if “they really are out to get you”? :)
I’ve previously demonstrated that I’m willing to make long-shot gambles on 5% odds, given that that’s roughly my estimate of cryonics working and I’ve signed up for it. So let’s try working with that number.
Out of all the possible scenarios of a Trump presidency, if you leave out 95% of the most positive options, how unpleasant is the best-remaining one? Put another way, is there at least a 5% chance of American or international politics descending to the point where my current apparent paranoia seems reasonable? And don’t forget, as you calibrate your answer, that according to FiveThirtyEight, on October 17, Hillary had been predicted to have over an 88% chance of winning, implying that many people, likely including myself, have been massively mis-calibrated about how likely unpleasant political events are.
You don’t place bets based solely on probabilities. You place bets based on probabilities, odds, timescales, investments, and alternative options. Specifically, you place bets to optimize for growth of principle with respect to time. What you’re doing is not placing a bet. If you were placing a bet and wanted feedback, it would have been appropriate to provide a lot more information, such as what you expect to gain from your bet, what you expect to lose in the negative case, what you’re hoping to optimize, what your expected costs are, and what alternatives you’re considering spending your time or money on. It’s not appropriate for you to provide any of that information because what you’re doing is not placing a bet.
What you’re doing is panicking and looking for an echo to tell you that your beliefs are sensible, that the world really is crashing, and that what you’re doing is justified. Your beliefs are not sensible, and the world isn’t really crashing. I don’t know if what you’re doing is justified, as that would require a lot more information, but honestly I think that’s irrelevant.
(A quick FYI, I’m about to try for a good night’s sleep, then compare how I was feeling when I first posted in this thread with however I feel when I wake.)