Good point. In fact I am far more likely to be sure when I have two timekeeping devices than when I have one and of those times when the man with one watch is sure but the man with two watches is not the man sure with one watch is sure and wrong over half the time.
I hope the intended rationality lesson here is approximately the opposite of the colloquial interpretation.
What colloquial interpretation is there to this that you don’t like? I would have read it as “Before trusting a watch, consider how well multiple watches agree with each other.”
What colloquial interpretation is there to this that you don’t like?
The standard (“colloquial”) interpretation is that you should carry one watch only lest you become confused—aka too much data leads to thinking and thinking is hard (and possibly painful).
What colloquial interpretation is there to this that you don’t like? I would have read it as “Before trusting a watch, consider how well multiple watches agree with each other.”
I had resolved the connotations to be along the lines of decisiveness, singleness of purpose and avoidance of confusing contradictory information. This kind of thing seems popular in in the kind of ‘wisdom’ expressed with that structure.
Good point. In fact I am far more likely to be sure when I have two timekeeping devices than when I have one and of those times when the man with one watch is sure but the man with two watches is not the man sure with one watch is sure and wrong over half the time.
I hope the intended rationality lesson here is approximately the opposite of the colloquial interpretation.
What colloquial interpretation is there to this that you don’t like? I would have read it as “Before trusting a watch, consider how well multiple watches agree with each other.”
The standard (“colloquial”) interpretation is that you should carry one watch only lest you become confused—aka too much data leads to thinking and thinking is hard (and possibly painful).
I had resolved the connotations to be along the lines of decisiveness, singleness of purpose and avoidance of confusing contradictory information. This kind of thing seems popular in in the kind of ‘wisdom’ expressed with that structure.