Newcomb-like problems: I estimate my confidence (C1) that I can be the sort of person whom Omega predicts will one-box while in fact two-boxing, and my confidence (C2) that Omega predicting I will one-box gets me more money than Omega predicting I will two-box. If C1 is low and C2 is high (as in the classic formulation), I one-box.
Counterfactual-mugging-like problems: I estimate how much it will reduce Omega’s chances of giving $10K to anyone I care about if I reject the offer. If that’s low enough (as in the classic formulation), I keep my money.
So what do you do on counterfactual mugging, or Newcomb’s problem for that matter?
Newcomb-like problems: I estimate my confidence (C1) that I can be the sort of person whom Omega predicts will one-box while in fact two-boxing, and my confidence (C2) that Omega predicting I will one-box gets me more money than Omega predicting I will two-box. If C1 is low and C2 is high (as in the classic formulation), I one-box.
Counterfactual-mugging-like problems: I estimate how much it will reduce Omega’s chances of giving $10K to anyone I care about if I reject the offer. If that’s low enough (as in the classic formulation), I keep my money.