Could the fact that both anecdotes involve large groups simultaneously support the model of correlation and clustering presumably from single extremely infectious sources?
Combined with observations of significantly decreased contagiousness from vaccinated people I would expect such events to become much rarer when completely naive people are rare. Consider the dynamics here, ~6 apparently infected in one event and then only two of those continuing to pass it on at all, a sub-replacement chain in that different context.
and then only two of those continuing to pass it on at all
I’m not sure this is the case. I think there was significant stagger between when the girls started showing symptoms, and I don’t know how many have gotten sick since then or who will get sick soon. My wife just started showing symptoms today, for example (though that’s not evidence of vaccinated->vaccinated transfer because kid).
If I had to bet, I’d guess that it was sub-replacement among vaccinated, I just don’t have all the data in front of me yet
Could the fact that both anecdotes involve large groups simultaneously support the model of correlation and clustering presumably from single extremely infectious sources?
Combined with observations of significantly decreased contagiousness from vaccinated people I would expect such events to become much rarer when completely naive people are rare. Consider the dynamics here, ~6 apparently infected in one event and then only two of those continuing to pass it on at all, a sub-replacement chain in that different context.
I’m not sure this is the case. I think there was significant stagger between when the girls started showing symptoms, and I don’t know how many have gotten sick since then or who will get sick soon. My wife just started showing symptoms today, for example (though that’s not evidence of vaccinated->vaccinated transfer because kid).
If I had to bet, I’d guess that it was sub-replacement among vaccinated, I just don’t have all the data in front of me yet