It should be noted, for your contagion calculations, that people infected through immune memory are almost certainly not NEARLY as infectious to others on average as completely naive people who are infected.
Israeli healthcare workers who are vaccinated who test positive have a much decreased viral RNA level in their samples, circa a factor of thirty, with the difference increasing as time from vaccination increases. There is a wide range but the whole range moves down so way fewer people will have the obscene viral levels that can do things like infecting sixty people in a room all at once. They also go from 80% showing up positive on an antigen test to 30% showing up positive on an antigen test—which has been a reasonable binary proxy for infectiousness in the past.
This makes sense. You never hear about 60 people all getting the flu at once in one place except in very special circumstances (things like an airplane sealed for two hours without air circulation and filtration), presumably because everyone has at least some anti-flu memory even if it isn’t good enough to completely stop everything in its tracks. The disease dynamics when there are lots of totally naive people running around is going to be completely different from the dynamics when everyone has memory, be it from vaccines or infection.
It should be noted, for your contagion calculations, that people infected through immune memory are almost certainly not NEARLY as infectious to others on average as completely naive people who are infected.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34250518/
Israeli healthcare workers who are vaccinated who test positive have a much decreased viral RNA level in their samples, circa a factor of thirty, with the difference increasing as time from vaccination increases. There is a wide range but the whole range moves down so way fewer people will have the obscene viral levels that can do things like infecting sixty people in a room all at once. They also go from 80% showing up positive on an antigen test to 30% showing up positive on an antigen test—which has been a reasonable binary proxy for infectiousness in the past.
This makes sense. You never hear about 60 people all getting the flu at once in one place except in very special circumstances (things like an airplane sealed for two hours without air circulation and filtration), presumably because everyone has at least some anti-flu memory even if it isn’t good enough to completely stop everything in its tracks. The disease dynamics when there are lots of totally naive people running around is going to be completely different from the dynamics when everyone has memory, be it from vaccines or infection.