That’s only true for a stationary series, which temperature isn’t. For a random walk series you can have a 50% chance of each new observation being the highest ever in the series. For a trended series it can be higher than 50%.
That’s only true for a stationary series, which temperature isn’t. For a random walk series you can have a 50% chance of each new observation being the highest ever in the series. For a trended series it can be higher than 50%.