Regarding 4, there are a fair number of people here interested in complexity theory issues so it shouldn’t be that hard to get people to judge that. Also note that I deliberately made the question more precise by listing three of the more plausible ways the result might be extended rather than just that it would be tightened. That helps make the question clear cut (if it were generalized to anything that could be reasonably construed as a tightening of his result I’d bump the probability up but it would be much trickier to judge the result.)
GAI: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2092
DADT: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2093 (assuming year timescale)
Riemann: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2094
Ryan Williams: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2095 (I, uh, hope you’ll be judging that one; I don’t follow complexity theory work as closely as you obviously do.)
Sex scandal: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2096
Korea: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2097 (when judging I assume any unilateral attack counts even if the other side doesn’t retaliate, like the Cheonan)
Regarding 4, there are a fair number of people here interested in complexity theory issues so it shouldn’t be that hard to get people to judge that. Also note that I deliberately made the question more precise by listing three of the more plausible ways the result might be extended rather than just that it would be tightened. That helps make the question clear cut (if it were generalized to anything that could be reasonably construed as a tightening of his result I’d bump the probability up but it would be much trickier to judge the result.)