This is one of the predictions I would include in my list for key trends over the span of this decade (rather than year). I might in weaker moments also conjunction fallacy it as an Apple product. I think there are some prereqs that still need to be addressed at this point including further maturation of mobile apps, some addressing of social acceptance of life tracking-style media recording, battery life, etc. So yeah.. S curve cumulative probability hitting 50% around 2020 that these achieve iPod like sales figures.
75% probability of being mainstream, or at least not unusual, by 2020. It seems like the obvious solution: phone screens are too small, laptops and even tablets are too inconvenient to carry around constantly. And I’d go 50/30/20 on the first mass market product being based on Android/Apple/other. (With Android, anybody can build it without asking for permission).
The argument for Apple is that a killer-quality device in this category would require serious UI support from the OS, possibly new interactions (eye tracking for example).
Prediction request for emergence of usable (commercial grade or easy DIY) eyewear computing of this sort
http://www.lumus-optical.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=9&Itemid=15
http://blog.2yb.org/2010/07/cd-case-wearable-computer.html
Please feel free to state your distributions beyond 2011
This is one of the predictions I would include in my list for key trends over the span of this decade (rather than year). I might in weaker moments also conjunction fallacy it as an Apple product. I think there are some prereqs that still need to be addressed at this point including further maturation of mobile apps, some addressing of social acceptance of life tracking-style media recording, battery life, etc. So yeah.. S curve cumulative probability hitting 50% around 2020 that these achieve iPod like sales figures.
Agreed, including the Apple conjunction fallacy.
75% probability of being mainstream, or at least not unusual, by 2020. It seems like the obvious solution: phone screens are too small, laptops and even tablets are too inconvenient to carry around constantly. And I’d go 50/30/20 on the first mass market product being based on Android/Apple/other. (With Android, anybody can build it without asking for permission).
The argument for Apple is that a killer-quality device in this category would require serious UI support from the OS, possibly new interactions (eye tracking for example).
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2103