I’m flattered by some of the speculations lower down. It’s not nearly so complex. I basically asked myself a series of questions about each one until I got to a rough idea by tens. The number is then adjusted by 3% or 5% with the former marking “just shy/north of” and the latter “between”. If my anxieties, both about the event and not wanting to put direct bias pressure on the number, seem satisfied, I go with it.
Reinsurance got 6% because I thought “a bit more than zero” then “more than that”.
I know of at least one geocaching/wifi exploit to achieve non-GPS locating; a virus using that plus having some use for the phone’s location would certainly scare enough people to start a small crisis.
This percentage seems surprisingly precise. How did you arrive at this number?
One-in-six chance is 16.666..., rounding up is 17%. That’s a possibility.
Not all of the other numbers in his post seem to be derived from fractions, though, so not very confident.
I’m flattered by some of the speculations lower down. It’s not nearly so complex. I basically asked myself a series of questions about each one until I got to a rough idea by tens. The number is then adjusted by 3% or 5% with the former marking “just shy/north of” and the latter “between”. If my anxieties, both about the event and not wanting to put direct bias pressure on the number, seem satisfied, I go with it.
Reinsurance got 6% because I thought “a bit more than zero” then “more than that”.
Also seems pretty low--83% certain android on so many platforms is pretty secure?
I doubt Hyena believes that: there are already Android viruses, but none of them have caused a small crisis in the mobile phone industry.
Right. I think we might have one sufficiently dangerous or infectious that people actually care.
I know of at least one geocaching/wifi exploit to achieve non-GPS locating; a virus using that plus having some use for the phone’s location would certainly scare enough people to start a small crisis.