Oh, my own odds are lower than mattnewport’s, just not low enough to call his estimate crazy.
Also, my bid-ask spread is pretty high if we’re talking actual bets. I’d take the “yes” side at something like 10:1 odds, and the “no” side at 2:1 odds the other way. And I’d only feel morally comfortable betting the “yes” side in the context of a formal prediction market, where the positive externalities to having accurate odds would assuage my guilt about collecting in that case.
Oh, my own odds are lower than mattnewport’s, just not low enough to call his estimate crazy.
Also, my bid-ask spread is pretty high if we’re talking actual bets. I’d take the “yes” side at something like 10:1 odds, and the “no” side at 2:1 odds the other way. And I’d only feel morally comfortable betting the “yes” side in the context of a formal prediction market, where the positive externalities to having accurate odds would assuage my guilt about collecting in that case.