1) Why do most probabilities here in percentage divisible by 5? Is there any reason that they be, I assume, rounded to the nearest 5? If this is the case, the 65% probability means “between 62.5 and 67.75”, right? Um, maybe not. I bet some people here round the probabilities to the nearest 10.
2) I would love to see some kind of distribution as well. Can we say something like:
I am 90% confident that the probability that event X happens is between 35% and 50%, but my best bet is 45%.
The distribution is skewed here, and it should be right-skewed if the probabilities involve, say, mutual agreements from a large number of independent parties. I’m not sure about the others, but it helps me imagine the picture.
3) hic Can someone make a prediction whether some of us here are time travelers (from the future)? [Got the joke?]
4) Can someone make predictions about predictions (including self)? Please.
Hello shadow, Welcome to LessWrong! I think the answers to your questions are as follows:
1) Working out exact probabilities for these kinds of predictions is unfeasible, so we approximate. Rounding to the 5 seems natural to a lot of us, and (I expect) it automatically conveys the approximate-ness of the prediction to most people.
2) Probability is in the mind. Therefore, giving a distribution of probabilities is just a way of saying “I am uncertain about how uncertain I am”.
4) Don’t think I understand this one, although this might qualify and/or interest you.
Just some questions.
1) Why do most probabilities here in percentage divisible by 5? Is there any reason that they be, I assume, rounded to the nearest 5? If this is the case, the 65% probability means “between 62.5 and 67.75”, right? Um, maybe not. I bet some people here round the probabilities to the nearest 10.
2) I would love to see some kind of distribution as well. Can we say something like:
The distribution is skewed here, and it should be right-skewed if the probabilities involve, say, mutual agreements from a large number of independent parties. I’m not sure about the others, but it helps me imagine the picture.
3) hic Can someone make a prediction whether some of us here are time travelers (from the future)? [Got the joke?]
4) Can someone make predictions about predictions (including self)? Please.
Hello shadow, Welcome to LessWrong! I think the answers to your questions are as follows:
1) Working out exact probabilities for these kinds of predictions is unfeasible, so we approximate. Rounding to the 5 seems natural to a lot of us, and (I expect) it automatically conveys the approximate-ness of the prediction to most people.
2) Probability is in the mind. Therefore, giving a distribution of probabilities is just a way of saying “I am uncertain about how uncertain I am”.
4) Don’t think I understand this one, although this might qualify and/or interest you.