On the other hand, this could make for good, low-stress practice at updating estimates based on new evidence/deductions. You probably should keep your original estimate in its place (since that’s what people’s replies are predicated on), but could you say here what you’d now estimate that probability to be?
Another good question. Upon further reflection, I’d have to admit that my thoughts in this area are....what’s the opposite of rigorous? Fuzzy, vague, unconscious? Someone who is very experienced and skilled in an area that requires intangible intuition or a “feel” for something might have very good judgment without being able to articulate the bases for that judgment. But I’m not experienced or skilled in the housing market. For that reason, I think I should be very suspicious of my own subjective intuitions in this area. They are breeding grounds for unknown bias. So I should revise my estimate downward. I must also admit that any pretense of a specific percentage estimate is far more precise than I am able to give. Right now I’m thinking of a range rather than a point, something like sixty to eighty percent.
P.S. Goddammit, I had to think about this some more and must clarify. My confession: I had to revise specifically downward because I think my subjective emotional biases would tend to make me wish that the housing market came down. On a conscious level, I made my first estimate in good faith. But now I am a bit more wary of what I was then thinking.
Fucking rationality. Okay, I’ve got stuff to do, so I’m going to forget this topic entirely for a bit.
On the other hand, this could make for good, low-stress practice at updating estimates based on new evidence/deductions. You probably should keep your original estimate in its place (since that’s what people’s replies are predicated on), but could you say here what you’d now estimate that probability to be?
Another good question. Upon further reflection, I’d have to admit that my thoughts in this area are....what’s the opposite of rigorous? Fuzzy, vague, unconscious? Someone who is very experienced and skilled in an area that requires intangible intuition or a “feel” for something might have very good judgment without being able to articulate the bases for that judgment. But I’m not experienced or skilled in the housing market. For that reason, I think I should be very suspicious of my own subjective intuitions in this area. They are breeding grounds for unknown bias. So I should revise my estimate downward. I must also admit that any pretense of a specific percentage estimate is far more precise than I am able to give. Right now I’m thinking of a range rather than a point, something like sixty to eighty percent.
P.S. Goddammit, I had to think about this some more and must clarify. My confession: I had to revise specifically downward because I think my subjective emotional biases would tend to make me wish that the housing market came down. On a conscious level, I made my first estimate in good faith. But now I am a bit more wary of what I was then thinking.
Fucking rationality. Okay, I’ve got stuff to do, so I’m going to forget this topic entirely for a bit.