The Chinese bubble is certainly going to collapse, but I doubt it will be a sudden enough collapse to happen within the year. People can talk all they want about undervalued currency or export dependency, my money is on demographic echo from the one child policy, and ecological and agricultural collapse from industrial pollution, both of which would be on the scale of a decade or more instead of a year. Though a smaller bursting of the bubble could happen due to general global economic downturn, the real kicker is still down the road a few years.
I think you’re suffering from availability bias. You can easily picture polluted countryside or a population crash, whereas “undervalued currency or export dependency” sound like a minor point of abstract economics.
You may want to look at this article to get a feel for the extent to which Chinese urban policies are driven by a desire to project an image rather then any internal sensible policies. For example, people who aren’t born residents aren’t allowed to move into Shanghai or Beijing while a third of the newly constructed buildings remain empty.
I’m not saying the near-term economic woes won’t hurt China or bust some of their economic bubble. I just think these are less likely to be profoundly crippling. The urban development issues you mention are part of what’s leading to China’s environmental troubles, and will have bigger impacts than just near term economic imbalance.
The Chinese bubble is certainly going to collapse, but I doubt it will be a sudden enough collapse to happen within the year. People can talk all they want about undervalued currency or export dependency, my money is on demographic echo from the one child policy, and ecological and agricultural collapse from industrial pollution, both of which would be on the scale of a decade or more instead of a year. Though a smaller bursting of the bubble could happen due to general global economic downturn, the real kicker is still down the road a few years.
I think you’re suffering from availability bias. You can easily picture polluted countryside or a population crash, whereas “undervalued currency or export dependency” sound like a minor point of abstract economics.
You may want to look at this article to get a feel for the extent to which Chinese urban policies are driven by a desire to project an image rather then any internal sensible policies. For example, people who aren’t born residents aren’t allowed to move into Shanghai or Beijing while a third of the newly constructed buildings remain empty.
I’m not saying the near-term economic woes won’t hurt China or bust some of their economic bubble. I just think these are less likely to be profoundly crippling. The urban development issues you mention are part of what’s leading to China’s environmental troubles, and will have bigger impacts than just near term economic imbalance.