I often find myself thinking about this. As in “the law of attraction: thinking/belief directly influences reality”. I think it might be true, in this strange world that we live in of which we know so little.
However, I find it very hard to remain optimistic when I feel that humanity has not only extinction pointed at their heads, but probably also something worse (s-risks (don’t get into this topic if you don’t wanna risk your sanity)). Add that to the opinion that the alignment problem is nearly impossible because you can’t control something more intelligent than yourself, plus the vulnerable world structure, plus the fact that computer systems are so fallible, plus the possibly short timelines to AGI...
If we had 100 years maybe we could do it and remain optimistic, but we might not even have 10.
When this is your worldview of the facts, it’s very hard to have any hope and to not be paranoid. I think evolution gave us paranoia as a last resort strategy to splash about and think/try everything possible. If everyone actually became paranoid/super-depressed about this, I think that would be our only chance to effectively stop AGI development until we have the alignment problem solved. Would take massive changes to world government etc, but it’s possible. Rats in lab experiments have no chance at all to alter their grim fate, but we do, if little.
But I don’t know. Maybe no pessimism ever helps anyway. Maybe optimismic law of attraction does exist. I really don’t know. I just find it impossible to have hope when I look at the situation.
It’s interesting you mention the law of attraction. I think our beliefs don’t directly influence reality, but they do influence reality indirectly—through the things we say to one another, through our actions, and through the things we consciously notice around us.
As I pointed out in the post, a depressed person can be exposed to the same stimuli and have a different reaction than a non-depressed person. In this way, their beliefs influence reality—but always according to the laws of physics. When you get down to it, the most accurate story of cause and effect will always be told in terms of physics, but I think there are some cases when you can maintain a fairly accurate summary by talking in terms of beliefs and expectations.
Even though I don’t currently share your pessimism, I do share your fear. I’m worried a lot about the future, including about s-risks. That’s truly what scares me the most.
Personally, I don’t think the alignment problem is one where we’ll know when it’s solved or not. We’ll just get closer and closer to better alignment, never approaching perfection. If the future goes “well,” then AI will stay aligned for a long time. If it goes badly, then AI won’t be aligned as long.
One thing that gives me solace is to remember that even if the universe were to be tiled with paperclips or something, new forms of life would still (eventually) arise from the chaos—just as it has in the past. Just as importantly, even if the worst (or best) outcomes happen, they won’t last forever. Entropy won’t allow it. I hope we can achieve a future that avoids extremes on either end—a balanced existence of pleasure and pain that can last a long time. (Due to the symmetries in physics, along with the Qualia Research Institute’s symmetry theory of valence, think that pleasure and pain must always be dished out in equal proportions in the grand scheme of things. But I’ll get to that in a future post.)
Alignment is based on mathematical theorems like game theory and other stuff. If you can find a mathematically proven solution, it willl stick (at least that’s the consensus I guess). Still things like viruses or bugs could occur, but here we have an intelligent agent equipped to deal with that, and no hacker is smart enough to hack something a million times more intelligent than him.
Can’t see life arising from aluminium alone.
Forever is a really long time.
Your view of pleasure and pain should become more influenced by science than philosophy, since the latter has usually got it wrong. Pain is a stupidity in the modern human era, it’s an extremely outdated survival mechanism. Look up Jo Cameron, a woman who was born immune to pain. She reported high happiness, sanity, was completely functional. Some people will go through little pain in their life’s. Others, absurd amounts. All comes down to luck, not balance. We could eliminate pain forever (with gene therapy). Or make world a living hell. There’s no advantage in having pain. Nor dues pleasure make up for it. Humans seek stability, not an endless orgasm. In fact that would become pain as well, it would fry you up.
I often find myself thinking about this. As in “the law of attraction: thinking/belief directly influences reality”. I think it might be true, in this strange world that we live in of which we know so little.
However, I find it very hard to remain optimistic when I feel that humanity has not only extinction pointed at their heads, but probably also something worse (s-risks (don’t get into this topic if you don’t wanna risk your sanity)). Add that to the opinion that the alignment problem is nearly impossible because you can’t control something more intelligent than yourself, plus the vulnerable world structure, plus the fact that computer systems are so fallible, plus the possibly short timelines to AGI...
If we had 100 years maybe we could do it and remain optimistic, but we might not even have 10.
When this is your worldview of the facts, it’s very hard to have any hope and to not be paranoid. I think evolution gave us paranoia as a last resort strategy to splash about and think/try everything possible. If everyone actually became paranoid/super-depressed about this, I think that would be our only chance to effectively stop AGI development until we have the alignment problem solved. Would take massive changes to world government etc, but it’s possible. Rats in lab experiments have no chance at all to alter their grim fate, but we do, if little.
But I don’t know. Maybe no pessimism ever helps anyway. Maybe optimismic law of attraction does exist. I really don’t know. I just find it impossible to have hope when I look at the situation.
It’s interesting you mention the law of attraction. I think our beliefs don’t directly influence reality, but they do influence reality indirectly—through the things we say to one another, through our actions, and through the things we consciously notice around us.
As I pointed out in the post, a depressed person can be exposed to the same stimuli and have a different reaction than a non-depressed person. In this way, their beliefs influence reality—but always according to the laws of physics. When you get down to it, the most accurate story of cause and effect will always be told in terms of physics, but I think there are some cases when you can maintain a fairly accurate summary by talking in terms of beliefs and expectations.
Even though I don’t currently share your pessimism, I do share your fear. I’m worried a lot about the future, including about s-risks. That’s truly what scares me the most.
Personally, I don’t think the alignment problem is one where we’ll know when it’s solved or not. We’ll just get closer and closer to better alignment, never approaching perfection. If the future goes “well,” then AI will stay aligned for a long time. If it goes badly, then AI won’t be aligned as long.
One thing that gives me solace is to remember that even if the universe were to be tiled with paperclips or something, new forms of life would still (eventually) arise from the chaos—just as it has in the past. Just as importantly, even if the worst (or best) outcomes happen, they won’t last forever. Entropy won’t allow it. I hope we can achieve a future that avoids extremes on either end—a balanced existence of pleasure and pain that can last a long time. (Due to the symmetries in physics, along with the Qualia Research Institute’s symmetry theory of valence, think that pleasure and pain must always be dished out in equal proportions in the grand scheme of things. But I’ll get to that in a future post.)
Paragraphs:
Alignment is based on mathematical theorems like game theory and other stuff. If you can find a mathematically proven solution, it willl stick (at least that’s the consensus I guess). Still things like viruses or bugs could occur, but here we have an intelligent agent equipped to deal with that, and no hacker is smart enough to hack something a million times more intelligent than him.
Can’t see life arising from aluminium alone.
Forever is a really long time.
Your view of pleasure and pain should become more influenced by science than philosophy, since the latter has usually got it wrong. Pain is a stupidity in the modern human era, it’s an extremely outdated survival mechanism. Look up Jo Cameron, a woman who was born immune to pain. She reported high happiness, sanity, was completely functional. Some people will go through little pain in their life’s. Others, absurd amounts. All comes down to luck, not balance. We could eliminate pain forever (with gene therapy). Or make world a living hell. There’s no advantage in having pain. Nor dues pleasure make up for it. Humans seek stability, not an endless orgasm. In fact that would become pain as well, it would fry you up.