I remember reading an article on Overcoming Bias long ago which predicted exactly this. In general, not just about AGI. That in many areas, first people who go there are those who ignore social conventions (otherwise they wouldn’t be first). But when the area becomes successful, there comes the second wave of people who are following a safe path to success. The people from the second wave usually don’t credit the people from the first wave, so the public perceives this second wave as the founders.
Eliezer did say and write many things. Some of them are now perceived as low status, some as high status. The safe road to success is to repeat only the high status things, and to never mention Eliezer. (Plus do some other high status things unrelated to Eliezer.)
This is not just a plausible story – I have personally known people where similar stories have played out, and have read about others. It has happened to varying degrees with Ted Nelson, Eric Drexler, Douglas Engelbart, Doug Lenat, David Deutsch, Alfred Russel Wallace, Hugh Everett, and, yes, me.
I remember reading an article on Overcoming Bias long ago which predicted exactly this. In general, not just about AGI. That in many areas, first people who go there are those who ignore social conventions (otherwise they wouldn’t be first). But when the area becomes successful, there comes the second wave of people who are following a safe path to success. The people from the second wave usually don’t credit the people from the first wave, so the public perceives this second wave as the founders.
Eliezer did say and write many things. Some of them are now perceived as low status, some as high status. The safe road to success is to repeat only the high status things, and to never mention Eliezer. (Plus do some other high status things unrelated to Eliezer.)
“Even When Contrarians Win, They Lose” http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/09/even-when-contr.html
Can you provide a link to the article, if you remember it?