These datapoints just feel like the result of random fluctuations. Both Writer and Eliezer mostly drove people to participate on the LK-99 stuff where lots of people were confidently wrong. In-general you can see that basically all the top referrers have negative income:
Among the top 10, Eliezer and Writer are somewhat better than the average (and yaboi is a huge outlier, which my guess is would be explained by them doing something quite different than the other people).
Agree, expanding to the top 9[1] makes it clear they’re not unusual in having large negative referral totals. I’d still expect Ratia to be doing better than this, and would guess a bunch of that comes from betting against common positions on doom markets, simulation markets, and other things which won’t resolve anytime soon (and betting at times when the prices are not too good, because of correlations in when that group is paying attention).
These datapoints just feel like the result of random fluctuations. Both Writer and Eliezer mostly drove people to participate on the LK-99 stuff where lots of people were confidently wrong. In-general you can see that basically all the top referrers have negative income:
Among the top 10, Eliezer and Writer are somewhat better than the average (and yaboi is a huge outlier, which my guess is would be explained by them doing something quite different than the other people).
Agree, expanding to the top 9[1] makes it clear they’re not unusual in having large negative referral totals. I’d still expect Ratia to be doing better than this, and would guess a bunch of that comes from betting against common positions on doom markets, simulation markets, and other things which won’t resolve anytime soon (and betting at times when the prices are not too good, because of correlations in when that group is paying attention).
Though the rest of the leaderboard seems to be doing much better