I have the same reservation regarding the probability regarding propositions 1) and 2) as army1987. In particular, I find that the probability that all writings regarding the aforementioned people are true is exceedingly low for both, but the probability that some person existed bearing that name, who performed at least one action or bore one trait that was subsequently recorded is rather high. Considering that this is meant to be an exercise on evaluating one’s priors (or at least that is how it appears to me), I would consider choosing one interpretation or the other and work from that. If you feel the need, simply try both interpretations or find a middle ground that you feel comfortable with. If this is not your issue with the propositions, then I would require more information on your attempts to solve the exercise in order to provide meaningful feedback.
I have the same reservation regarding the probability regarding propositions 1) and 2) as army1987. In particular, I find that the probability that all writings regarding the aforementioned people are true is exceedingly low for both, but the probability that some person existed bearing that name, who performed at least one action or bore one trait that was subsequently recorded is rather high. Considering that this is meant to be an exercise on evaluating one’s priors (or at least that is how it appears to me), I would consider choosing one interpretation or the other and work from that. If you feel the need, simply try both interpretations or find a middle ground that you feel comfortable with. If this is not your issue with the propositions, then I would require more information on your attempts to solve the exercise in order to provide meaningful feedback.
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