It seems to me that it would be more effective to work from evidence that you have encountered personally or in the case of hypothetical evidence, could have hypothetically encountered. In the case of historical figures, unless you happen to be an archaeologist yourself, the majority of the evidence you have is through secondary and tertiary sources. For example, if a publication alleged that Julius was a title, not a name, and was used by many Caesars, and thus many acts attributed to the person Julius Caesar were in fact performed by separate individuals, you would probably have little reason to believe this. If a great number of publications, especially from respected organizations and individuals within the archaeological field posited the same thing, it might be sufficient to give you pause (it would for me in any case).
It seems to me that the intent here is to evaluate a prior based on a great quantity of weak evidence. Both weak evidence directly to the contrary in sufficient quantity, or evidence that discredits the sources used to generate your prior should sufficiently alter the probability to create doubt.
It seems to me that it would be more effective to work from evidence that you have encountered personally or in the case of hypothetical evidence, could have hypothetically encountered. In the case of historical figures, unless you happen to be an archaeologist yourself, the majority of the evidence you have is through secondary and tertiary sources. For example, if a publication alleged that Julius was a title, not a name, and was used by many Caesars, and thus many acts attributed to the person Julius Caesar were in fact performed by separate individuals, you would probably have little reason to believe this. If a great number of publications, especially from respected organizations and individuals within the archaeological field posited the same thing, it might be sufficient to give you pause (it would for me in any case).
It seems to me that the intent here is to evaluate a prior based on a great quantity of weak evidence. Both weak evidence directly to the contrary in sufficient quantity, or evidence that discredits the sources used to generate your prior should sufficiently alter the probability to create doubt.